What happened in New Hampshire? [Updated] | 209 comments (209 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Flip-o-rama (none / 1)

For fun, rather than vote differential vs. ward size, I plot vote differential vs. democratic/republican ratio in total votes. Top plot, numbers 'as they are'. Bottom plot, machine vote flipped.
Numbers as they are, opposite trends for machines/hand-count with ratio of dem. votes. Visually quite striking, top vs. bottom.

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Thu Jan 17th, 2008 at 09:23:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Flip-o-rama (none / 0)

Top chart shows clinton doing better in predominantly Democratic wards - as one would expect - given apparent independent preference for Obama.

Bottom chart shows clinton doing worse in predominantly Democratic wards - as one would not expect

therefore the vote switch hypothesis is not supported?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jan 17th, 2008 at 09:35:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Flip-o-rama (4.00 / 2)

Top chart shows Clinton doing better in machine counted dem. wards, and Obama doing better in hand counted dem. wards. Note, this is not strictly dem. wards, it is the ones with more people voting in the democratic primary. Those people could be either registered democrats or independents:
New Hampshire primary - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Undeclared voters -- those not registered with any party -- can vote in either party primary.
...
Additionally, as of 2002, 25.6% of New Hampshire residents are registered Democrats and 36.7% are Republicans, with 37.7% of New Hampshire voters registered as "undeclared" independents. This plurality of independents is a major reason why New Hampshire is considered a swing state in general U.S. presidential elections.

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Thu Jan 17th, 2008 at 09:52:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What happened in New Hampshire? [Updated] | 209 comments (209 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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