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That there is a very strong effect, amounting to a 20% swing in Hillsborough county alone.

It doesn't tell us where the effect came from.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 17th, 2008 at 11:58:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Flip 42.7% of 80542 = 34391 votes for called for HRC with 34% of 80542 = 27384 for BO

80542 : total votes in Hillsborough

Adjust for the 7007 difference in the total vote tally - and they flip as well 112000 - 105000 ! And the undoctored handcount percentages - 39.3% for BO and 36.6% for HRC - reappear for the whole state!

Hillsborough has 3 handcounted precincts (Atrim, New Boston, Wilton) reported in the last yellow table, Appendix E of the Paired Precinct study.

Those 3 handcounted precincts have 30% for HRC and 42% for BO. It must be highly unlikely that Diebold precincts within the same county diametrically differ from handcounted precincts.  

Hillsboroug as an urban area would tilt even more towards BO looking at demographics. Rural areas would be less black, less young and more conservative. A female bias in urban areas cannot be that pronounced to override this. Indeed BO's advance is even more pronounced in urban areas.

I bet that the recount will show that the Hillsborough county total was flipped.

One single operation performed by a remote hacker on the biggest county. Couldn't resist the Freudian temptation to leave a clue by taking on Hillsborough for Hillary.. A simple and workable method that could be started at the beginning of the poll evening.
The tactic would survive a first hand recount check that the individual Diebold precincts were correctly reported to the total tally before the additions.

Not elaborate and subtle doctoring precinct by precinct which would have meant a bigger conspiracy, a considerably higher risk and an uncertain outcome. Creating votes out of thin air could probably be detected by uncorrelated turnout documented elsewhere. The flip can also be denied by to be the whim of a computer or a software.
Unfortunately, the Hillsborough flip also flipped the statewise total ! Now, I can't imagine that the flipper would have the nerve to swap the candidates at the TOP LEVEL presentation after the additions, but why not ?

Elling

by Elling (elling@torium.se) on Thu Jan 17th, 2008 at 03:56:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, what we know (in particular the charts I have posted in this subthread) is consistent with flipping of the vote counts at the ward level in Hillsborough county only. But it doesn't prove that is what happened.
Those 3 handcounted precincts have 30% for HRC and 42% for BO. It must be highly unlikely that Diebold precincts within the same county diametrically differ from handcounted precincts.  
Yes, that is really unlikely, but if you have 10 counties that one will be nearly diametrically flipped is 10 times more likely, so the bar is higher: to have 95% confidence that the effect is there in one county out of 10 you need 99.5% confidence for the result in that county only.

However, that the result in the largest county is flipped is equally significant regardless of the number of counties. Unless, of course, you have formulated the hypothesis after looking at the data, in which case the bar rises again.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 17th, 2008 at 04:21:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does flipping Hillsborough machine counted votes change the overall result of the Primary - i.e. does Obama then win?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jan 17th, 2008 at 06:25:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The original results are
Clinton  Obama
 112610 105007
with
Clinton  Obama
  31928  25525
in the Hillsborough county machine-counted wards. Reversing those gives
Clinton  Obama
 106207 111410


We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 17th, 2008 at 07:28:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank for the corrected exact numbers.

Now , maybe the irregularitites extnds to wards outside Hillsborough. The table contains other 40-34 pairs seeminglynext to each other that are reversed from  hand to Diebold.

Also, the exit polls estimated a double digit Obama win. So the fraudster may have have had to flip more than Hillsborough : Changing 40-34 for Obama into 39-36 for  Clinton would rather mean flipping the WHOLE Diebold count. Is that feasible ?  


Elling

by Elling (elling@torium.se) on Fri Jan 18th, 2008 at 04:48:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The county-level data do not support the hypothesis that the machine counts were flipped in all counties. Only Hillsborough presents a near match.

The total number of Democratic votes was 288055. The preliminary counts gave Clinton 39.1% to Obama's 36.5%. Flipping the Hillsborough machine counts gives Obama 38.7% to Clinton's 36.9%. This also looks like a near reversal, just because of the size of Hillsborough relative to the whole state.

It has been argued that the order of the candidates on the ballot can explain up to a 3% difference between pre-election polls and actual results. Going from 40:34 to 39:37 for Obama due to this ballot placement effect and then to 36:39 due to a Hillsborough flip is not so far-fetched.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 18th, 2008 at 05:02:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But if it can be verfied that the ballot layout and its ordering of candidates has this dramatic effect, isn't that reason for a replay of elections ?

Who gets to design the ballots anyway ?

Elling

by Elling (elling@torium.se) on Fri Jan 18th, 2008 at 05:19:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, you have to have the candidates in some order or another on the ballot, don't you? In this case it was alphabetical. Have you seen the ballot, by the way? [PDF]

Though I have read somewhere (no link, sorry) that it used to be that each precinct had a different randomly generated ordering so this effect was minimised, except that procedure wasn't used this time around.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 18th, 2008 at 05:54:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I had a quick look at the NH secretary of state website and the recount doesn't seem to be showing up any significant anomalies.  Are they hand counting the paper ballots that were previously machine counted?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 18th, 2008 at 06:47:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Forgot to say - congrats Migeru - you got another 200+ comment thread to your name - thanks in part to all my stupid questions....

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 18th, 2008 at 06:49:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here is the recount page.

Yes, they are recounting the machine ballots in Hillsborough and Rockingham counties, I believe.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 18th, 2008 at 07:21:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, that's the page I was looking at - which doesn't seem to be showing any anomolies - which either means there is no fraud, or they are using the same methodology, or their methodology is flawed

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 18th, 2008 at 01:30:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The other hypothesis is that the actual ballots were tampered with.

Black Box Voting : 1-17-08: Ballot boxes found slit; NH stops putting ballots in vault;

No worries, say New Hampshire officials when cuts up to eight inches long are spotted in newly delivered ballot boxes. "The only seal that counts is the one on top."

Except the seal on top can be peeled off without leaving a trace, then reaffixed.

Black Box Voting has been doing a chain of custody exam for the New Hampshire Primary's recount. On Wednesday night, Election Defense Alliance's Sally Castleman mentioned a troubling observation: After following the ballots back to the ballot vault following Wednesday's recount, she had the opportunity to enter the ballot vault, and noticed what looked like cuts, or slits, in the side of many ballot boxes. New Hampshire officials assured us that these cuts, which slice through the tape and seals do not permit access to the uncounted ballots, pointing to a label on the boxtop which they call a seal.
Drew pointed me to this page.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 18th, 2008 at 01:49:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One remote programmer can make a change to a program to flip results for two candidates and then erase the change afterwards to cover his tracks.  It takes a conspiracy of an entirely different order to enter vaults, slit boxes, and stuff them with exactly the right number of ballot papers per box or ward to replicate the effects of the counting switch - which would require adding c. 7000 Clinton ballots and removing c. 7000 Obama ballots. Is there ANY evidence that could support this hypothesis - other than the amazing fact that NH procedures seem to be so lax as to make it possible?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 18th, 2008 at 02:01:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, there is no evidence of this except that NH's chain of custody is so lax as to give LHS the means and opportunity to do it after the recount was called (which would provide the motive). However, this is highly speculative as far as I'm concerned. There is a pile of circumstantial evidence but no hard evidence any crime was actually committed.

Black Box Voting : 1-17-08: Ballot boxes found slit; NH stops putting ballots in vault;

I confirmed this morning that many if not most of the boxes scheduled to be counted today had slits in them. I went out when a vanload of ballots arrived, and saw that they were slit at the time they arrived by van. Susan Pynchon and I drove to two nearby towns and watched as they handed over their ballot boxes to "Butch and Hoppy", the two men who drive around in the state in a van picking the ballots up. We observed as they loaded boxes of ballots into the van with no slits at all in them. We videotaped each of these up close. They arrived at the destination without slits. The label on the top was affixed, but in some cases was crumpled, or also damaged.


We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 18th, 2008 at 02:11:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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