Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Yes, what we know (in particular the charts I have posted in this subthread) is consistent with flipping of the vote counts at the ward level in Hillsborough county only. But it doesn't prove that is what happened.
Those 3 handcounted precincts have 30% for HRC and 42% for BO. It must be highly unlikely that Diebold precincts within the same county diametrically differ from handcounted precincts.  
Yes, that is really unlikely, but if you have 10 counties that one will be nearly diametrically flipped is 10 times more likely, so the bar is higher: to have 95% confidence that the effect is there in one county out of 10 you need 99.5% confidence for the result in that county only.

However, that the result in the largest county is flipped is equally significant regardless of the number of counties. Unless, of course, you have formulated the hypothesis after looking at the data, in which case the bar rises again.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 17th, 2008 at 04:21:31 PM EST
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