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Thanks for this, Stormy.

I personally think Kucinich is right to have called for a recount on principle, but maybe $100k or more is too much money for his campaign and I would have for him to make a fool of himself if the recount finds no irregularities (as in the Nader recount in 2004).

the stormy present:

I have personally got serious reservations about the use of voting machines that don't leave a reliable, verifiable paper trail, and I think their use needs to be discontinued.  I have said this since 2000.
I think in this case we're talking about optical scan of physical ballots with colour-in ballots like the ones people use for multiple-choice tests. So there is a possibility of a recount, which is not there with touch-screen voting. So NH has a good system as far as that goes. Let's not sssume ballot-tampering just yet.

I definitely intend to run a regression on education, income, age, race, gender and town size if I can get my hands on census data. The idea is that after all these effects are taken out there should be no correlation between vote counting method and Clinton/Obama spread.

Examples:  The guy from Election Defense Alliance says he got his data from the NH Secretary of State web site.  He doesn't link to it, but the data is here.

He says Clinton had 91,717 optical-scan votes and 20,889 hand-counted votes, for a total of 112,606 votes.  But the NH Secretary of State says Clinton got a total of 112,610 votes.  He says Obama got 81,495 optical-scan votes and  hand-counted votes for a total of 105,004 votes, but the NH SOS says he got a total of 105,007 votes.

He also doesn't say how he determined which votes were machine-counted and which were hand-counted.  Here's the official list of machine-counted municipalities, fyi.

The guy from EDA has the data aggregated at county level and it shows significant discrepancies only in the two largest counties. I'll post that later. But the issue of sources is important and I intended to get the original SoS data and independently verify all the claims.

Again, thanks for this. Scepticism is what we need. I think Georg Polya said the steps in proving something are to convince yourself, then convince a friend, then convince an enemy. Right now we're in the "convince a friend" stage.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jan 13th, 2008 at 08:22:18 AM EST
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I suspect Kucinich is responding to the generally high level of skepticism (especially among his core followers on the left) about voting machines in general.  He doesn't stand to personally benefit from a recount, which is one reason why I respect his decision to call for one -- the system does need to be examined, and needs to be open to verification.  Anyone who's concerned about the integrity of the system needs to take seriously any serious questions about its reliability.  It has to be able to stand up to scrutiny.  So far, it looks to me like smoke with no fire, but that doesn't mean you ignore the smoke.

I think in this case we're talking about optical scan of physical ballots with colour-in ballots like the ones people use for multiple-choice tests. So there is a possibility of a recount, which is not there with touch-screen voting. So NH has a good system as far as that goes. Let's not sssume ballot-tampering just yet.

Yes, they are optical-scan machines, and NH officials have made it clear that every vote in the state is made on a paper ballot that can be re-counted and manually verified if necessary.  This system is far more reliable and tamper-resistant than some of the other Diebold machines.  If someone were going to intentionally mess with the results, it wouldn't really make sense to do it in a place where the votes can be re-counted.

Yes, it all does need to be examined, and I am looking forward very much toward seeing what you come up with.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Sun Jan 13th, 2008 at 08:40:43 AM EST
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Migeru:
I would havehate for him to make a fool of himself


We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jan 13th, 2008 at 08:43:24 AM EST
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Glad for this.
It's why I come here.

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Sun Jan 13th, 2008 at 08:59:08 AM EST
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