Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I think your post is a little misleading. Cantarell is most definitely in terminal decline, no one denies that anymore (even if that decline is partly compensated by increasin extraction in the KMZ-complex), while there is no conclusive proof whatsoever that Ghawar is in decline.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 02:13:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Terminal decline might seem a bit over the top, but it is most likely in decline.

The Saudis have developed Ghawar by using peripheral water injection-- water is pumped into the reservoir, driving the remaining oil to the surface. More details about Saudi production were available before 1980, allowing Staniford to infer that the depth of the remaining oil column in northern Ghawar at that time was about 500 feet. Evidence from many sources suggests that the water level has been rising at about 18.4 feet per year. If you extrapolate that trend, this would mean that the northern part of Ghawar is by now quite depleted.

Staniford has also built a detailed computer simulation of the Ghawar reser­voir, based on its size and shape, the porosity and permeability of its rock, and the assumed oil-extraction rates. The results of this simulation line up remarkably well with Staniford's other calculations. Oil production from northern Ghawar has likely peaked.

Southern Ghawar still holds a lot of oil, and perhaps the kingdom's push to find new fields will bear fruit. But northern Ghawar was developed first because it was by far the most promising field. Its production cannot be easily replaced. At about the same time that Saudi production began its decline, the new Haradh project in southern Ghawar began producing perhaps an additional 300,000 barrels a day. The Saudis have also made a huge investment to reopen the Qatif field on the eastern coast, which they had abandoned in 1995; it is now producing an estimated half-million barrels a day. With Saudi production falling despite these new contributions, the situation could be serious.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 02:21:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]