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*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 03:45:56 PM EST
From 1979 to 1999 Oil went down from 100 to $10 a barrel in inflation adjusted terms.  There may be some adjustment down for a while now if recession really hits and supply exceed demand.  Much of the demand growth is in the developing world which can least afford current prices and thus will be very price sensitive.  The danger is that such a temporary price fall will lead to reduced emphasis on alternatives.  Its always difficult to predict a turning point but we must beware making the argument for peak oil just on price trends.  Prices could well come down quite a bit before the next long haul up to a much higher peak.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 06:34:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Count on demand destruction coming not primarily from transportation anywhere, but from power and industry in the developing world as they switch over to much cheaper alternatives like coal (why do you think China builds a coal plant a week?). A coal boe is still $10-15.

There's about 15 mbpd to cut here, and that's gonna happen even if oil prices fall by a third. And it might happen fast. The OECD cut 8 mbdp in non-transportattion demand in 1979-1984.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 06:51:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's nothing of the sort. It's just that the monetary costs are low for the corporations digging or burning the stuff, and the actual costs are dumped on others.

That's no more "cheap" than shitting in someone's garden can be called "cheap toilets"

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 10:36:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's cheap if you don't care about other people...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 11:58:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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