Countdown to $100 oil (56)- final diary | 51 comments (51 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Don't undermine their attempts to undermine the significance of that trade!

It was not the omnipotent Market if it was only two lousy traders (which have now been fired, lol)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 08:41:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are a commie (4.00 / 2)

Talk about wrongful termination...

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 09:29:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Can't fire locals (4.00 / 2)

they work for themselves (independent players usually).

Sounds like someone had a bet working and got off a one lot trade before anyone else could respond. Bit tacky to trade through the other offers. Surprised the NYMEX didn't kick the trade out.

No biggy. We're basically there ($100)

For 2008, I'm betting lower though with GWB in the White House screwing up all over the world, any sort of political mess could keep things on a boil. But if his recession comes, we go lower.

by HiD on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 04:15:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can't fire locals (none / 0)

Someone mentioned that China is likely to pull the plug after the Olympics.

If there is a recession, how low is "lower"?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 04:53:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Lower? (none / 1)

Really hard to say now. Used to be a lack of cohesion in OPEC could drop prices 50% in a very short period of time. Now with Nigeria unable to control their angry population in the oil areas (production down 20+%), Indo an importer, Venz still not recovering from their civil strife (production down), Russia back in growth mode leaving less for export in the longer term, Mexico in decline etc etc, price is really up to Saudi, Kuwait and the Emirates.

I could see the Saudis tolerating $60-75 if they see evidence higher prices are leading to real acceleration of shifting to alternatives. They're smart enough to know that once people shift, they won't come back.

If we have a serious worldwide recession such that demand drops back to say 70 MMBD from current 80-84 range, we could go even lower as at that level Saudi and Kuwait could turn off their entire production and there would still be a surplus. OPEC had that size drop in the pull of their production in the 80's which led to oil going from $40 to $10 (say $100---$25 now).

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/PAPRPOP.gif

Odds of that happening??? got me.

by HiD on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 04:39:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are a commie (4.00 / 3)

You couldn't make it up!

The fact that $100 oil when it came, was as a result of an apparently manipulative "high tick" trade by locals just about sums up the current system, which is run by intermediaries, for intermediaries...

I'll believe NYMEX (which has always been run by locals for locals) takes compliance seriously the moment they start videotaping the trading floor, which was the first thing I introduced when I started as Head of Compliance at IPE 17 years ago.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 04:18:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Countdown to $100 oil (56)- final diary | 51 comments (51 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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