Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Comment crosspost from Daily Kos.

after your earlier diary one looking ahead to 2008, I matched the list of mega oil projects that you linked to at the page the Oil Drum Europe people made on Wikipedia, and matched that on a spreadsheet I made using the US DOE numbers on 1980-2007 oil production.  I used the consumption trend of the past two years (Post Katrina and the the rise in oil prices) and matched it to to the production increases from those oil projects. Then I ran the numbers out to 2013 when the "wall of oil" destine for the world markets dries up.

It's interesting.

Brazil becomes a major oil exporter by 2013, exporting 2.88 mbd more than currently.  Canada puts an additional 2.65 mbd on the market. At the same time US consumption is down  by over a million barrels a day if 05-07 consumption trends hold.  This is true for most of the OECD, but consumption is way up in underdeveloped countries.  China needs to find another 3.43 mbd on the world market, and India another 0.22 mbd on the world market.

Huge consumption increases in the OPEC states.  The 1 mbd decrease in the US, is matched by a similiar increase in Saudi Arabia.  

And all off this assumes that current oil field production remains constant, when its more likely that fields like Ghawar in Saudi and Cantarell in Mexico are in terminal decline.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 01:41:12 PM EST
I think your post is a little misleading. Cantarell is most definitely in terminal decline, no one denies that anymore (even if that decline is partly compensated by increasin extraction in the KMZ-complex), while there is no conclusive proof whatsoever that Ghawar is in decline.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 02:13:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Terminal decline might seem a bit over the top, but it is most likely in decline.

The Saudis have developed Ghawar by using peripheral water injection-- water is pumped into the reservoir, driving the remaining oil to the surface. More details about Saudi production were available before 1980, allowing Staniford to infer that the depth of the remaining oil column in northern Ghawar at that time was about 500 feet. Evidence from many sources suggests that the water level has been rising at about 18.4 feet per year. If you extrapolate that trend, this would mean that the northern part of Ghawar is by now quite depleted.

Staniford has also built a detailed computer simulation of the Ghawar reser­voir, based on its size and shape, the porosity and permeability of its rock, and the assumed oil-extraction rates. The results of this simulation line up remarkably well with Staniford's other calculations. Oil production from northern Ghawar has likely peaked.

Southern Ghawar still holds a lot of oil, and perhaps the kingdom's push to find new fields will bear fruit. But northern Ghawar was developed first because it was by far the most promising field. Its production cannot be easily replaced. At about the same time that Saudi production began its decline, the new Haradh project in southern Ghawar began producing perhaps an additional 300,000 barrels a day. The Saudis have also made a huge investment to reopen the Qatif field on the eastern coast, which they had abandoned in 1995; it is now producing an estimated half-million barrels a day. With Saudi production falling despite these new contributions, the situation could be serious.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 02:21:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]