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after your earlier diary one looking ahead to 2008, I matched the list of mega oil projects that you linked to at the page the Oil Drum Europe people made on Wikipedia, and matched that on a spreadsheet I made using the US DOE numbers on 1980-2007 oil production. I used the consumption trend of the past two years (Post Katrina and the the rise in oil prices) and matched it to to the production increases from those oil projects. Then I ran the numbers out to 2013 when the "wall of oil" destine for the world markets dries up.
Brazil becomes a major oil exporter by 2013, exporting 2.88 mbd more than currently. Canada puts an additional 2.65 mbd on the market. At the same time US consumption is down by over a million barrels a day if 05-07 consumption trends hold. This is true for most of the OECD, but consumption is way up in underdeveloped countries. China needs to find another 3.43 mbd on the world market, and India another 0.22 mbd on the world market.
Huge consumption increases in the OPEC states. The 1 mbd decrease in the US, is matched by a similiar increase in Saudi Arabia.
And all off this assumes that current oil field production remains constant, when its more likely that fields like Ghawar in Saudi and Cantarell in Mexico are in terminal decline.
And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
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