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Railways, energy, CO2 - Part 1 | 30 comments (30 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: An uncomplicating factor is that ... (none / 1)
I think what may happen is that the efficiency of cars--whether they be powered by electricity or hydrogen or flywheel or whatever--will continue to increase. Given the advantage to the user of the individualized point-to-point transportation provided by the car, it will be a competitive race. Trains have advantages in high traffic corridors, but cars are pretty good in lots of other ways.

I doubt that cars will go away unless there are formal policies put in place to punish their use. Congestion charges being one example...

by asdf on Thu Jan 24th, 2008 at 12:54:05 AM EST
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Re: An uncomplicating factor is that ... (none / 1)
Cars are simply very useful, and the whole public transport system together doesn't offer anything close to it, except for people who live in quite large and dense cities. There are many routes where public transport can, in principle, be faster and easier than a car. But for 'non-standard' trips, cars offer an unmatched flexibility.

So most people will have a car, even if they can do most of their transportation completely fine by other means. And once someone has spend the money to buy a car ( and often paid more than really necessary, to buy a car nicer than absolutely needed), the marginal cost of using it for an extra trip is quite low.

If people think cars are in some way damaging the greater good, and public transport would be preferred, I think it is wise to pinpoint as good as possible how they think they are damaging. If it is the COs, tax the petrol. But if it is the existence of the cars themselves, through the parking lots they need and the roads they demand, then a per kilometer charge in any way won't help. People will still want a car for those trips that are absolutely horrible by public transport.

Congestion tax is another story again. After all, who is hurt by congestion other than the people causing it?  I f there is a rationale for congestion tax, it is to separate the people who need the road and are willing gto pay for it from the rest.

by GreatZamfir on Thu Jan 24th, 2008 at 06:23:40 AM EST
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Re: An uncomplicating factor is that ... (none / 1)
There's a lot of truth there, but really what we're talking about are the services that owning a car provides (point-to-point transport, cargo capacity, schedule flexibility, status signalling). Of those four, the first three (for [sub]urban populations at least) can be addressed by car clubs like whizzgo or streetcar.

Regards
Luke

-- #include witty_sig.h

by silburnl on Thu Jan 24th, 2008 at 06:44:52 AM EST
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Re: An uncomplicating factor is that ... (none / 1)
I know these car clubs, and indeed I think they might grow a lot more in the future. But your point about urban populations should not be neglected: at the moment the only places here in the Netherands were they are really working are the centres of old cities, where an apartment with parking space costs easily 50.000 euros more than one without. In other places, the amount of members needed to provide dense coverage is not reachable.

Also, I think your point on status signalling is too simple. It is a part of the much larger phenomenon that people just like to have a car. I know many people, usually men, who read car magazines and can spend hours talking about what car they would like to buy. My uncle enjoys nothing more than washing his car with his children. So he has a second-hand BMW. Some part of that is status, but he is also really attached to it, much more than to other things he owns. He made very sure he got the 6-cylinder engine he liked best, even though this is invisible on the outside. But he likes the sound.

And even apart from car lovers, most people just like that their car is their own, an extension of their house instead of public space. The major reason people are willing to spend hours in traffic jams instead of taking the train is that they prefer to be in their own personal space and not packed between loads of strangers.

Sure, it is possible to put this all in some category and call it 'consumerism' or 'status signalling'. But people are like that. Cars appear, quite universally, to hit a nerve that little other products or services do. Even people who don't feel this way themselves can't discuss transportation without taking this is into account.

by GreatZamfir on Thu Jan 24th, 2008 at 08:36:11 AM EST
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However, it would be misleading to treat ... (none / 1)
... this as a purely individual decision.

It was, of course, the railroads and the increase in personal travel and freight that created the demand for a "last mile" transport system that led to a substantial increase in horse drawn carriages and carts and, with their many disadvantages, drove the race to develop a horseless carriage. So there is no generic conflict between a substantial role for transport services on dedicated transport corridors and personal transport across a broad network of public rights of way.

However, new employment centers in the United States are located away from public transport routes because of a substantial system of subsidies and zoning controls that strongly encourages it and, in some cases, come close to demanding it. Changing that, changes the individual cost-benefit of Auto-And-Nothing-Else.

And personal vehicles that provide supplemental local transport, including to stops on dedicated transport corridors, are cheaper today, in total cost of ownership, than a car. Experience in many places has shown that with availability of effective services on dedicated transport corridors, combined with TOD, can result in a substantial change in the mode-split.

We do not know how close we are to a threshold where there is a positive feedback between the benefit to retailers to cater to those in non-freeway-speed vehicles and the increased appeal of local vehicles because of the range of those catering to local vehicles ... but if we hit that threshold, we will clearly leave an auto-centric transport system in the direction of a diversified system.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Jan 25th, 2008 at 12:47:17 PM EST
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Railways, energy, CO2 - Part 1 | 30 comments (30 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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