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Comparison of various crashes interesting common patterns:

Here the horizontal scale is time in weeks, the vertical scale is logarithmic (+1 is 100% gain). The graphs follow the crashe of 1930's (red), Japanese crisis on the 1990s (blue), and the IT buble (green).

by das monde on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 05:34:06 AM EST
so looking at that, if we follow that pattern there ahould be a roughly 120 week slide in stock prices abfore things start to recover?

so when did the current troubles really start?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 05:37:40 AM EST
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IIRC, the DJIA peaked around October 10, 2007. If it follws the same pattern, it should go down for around 70 more weeks...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 05:53:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The prediction has a big chance to be self-fulfilling.
by das monde on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 06:40:46 AM EST
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so it peaked around 1400, and is currently around 8600, that would mean it bottoming out at about......

1040  

[ceeb's Crystal Ball of Doom™ Technology]

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 08:06:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Difficult to say. If you look at the three crisis mentioned, the duration of the slide is more or less the same, but the depth is not.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 08:15:36 AM EST
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I was working on slides appear to last 120 weeks, in 50 weeks we've lost x ammount, so how much would we lose in 120. OK it's not even vaguely scientific, but then again I havent seen anybody 'serious' provide any scientific figures either.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 08:28:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Color me skeptical.

It seems to me that chart is saying:

  1.  A dramatic run-up is followed by a dramatic bust-up.

  2.  You can cherry pick 3 dramatic Up/Down stock movements that, more-or-less match along the time axis.

If the analyst had overlaid all Boom/Busts on record - and the records go back hundreds of years - then we might be able to see if the Time match is significant.  For example, does the Tulip Bulb craze in the Netherlands follow the same pattern?  


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Oct 11th, 2008 at 02:56:03 AM EST
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