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The RNC is making noises that they are going to stop wasting money on the presidential campaign and go to a full court defense to keep a blocking minority in the Senate.

It is their best plan.  It has a major hole.  In a presidential year more people vote.  The GOP risks suppressing their own vote should their loosely-attached start saying, "Screw it.  I'm not voting."  Should that happen they also risk losing more seats in the House (for complicated reasons I won't go into.)

Should they do this it is another Hail Mary from the GOP.  (I note the McCain campaign hasn't had a lot of success with that tactic.)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 07:13:54 PM EST
ATinNM:
(for complicated reasons I won't go into.)

I would guess that many vote a straight ticket and if not motivated by the presidentail election, they will not vote at all. But that does not look complicated at all...

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by A swedish kind of death on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 08:36:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well.

No.  ;-)

After the 2000 and 2002 elections the GOP controlled most of the state legislatures and had control of establishing the Congressional districts boundaries.  The leaders of the GOP under the direction of Karl Rove - a GOP political operative & a real slime ball - got involved in the process and had those boundaries drawn, based on past election results, to maximize the GOP representative: gerrymandering  is what it is called in the US.  One thing that the GOP had to do was to dilute their own vote across several districts, taking a 9% lead to a 3% lead, say.

Manipulating the vote by careful map making is fine when the voters turnout by historic patterns, a disaster when it doesn't.  Either an exceptional turnout by the Dems or/and a fall in GOP vote (or both,) relative to historic pattern.  If this happens, the GOP is facing a loss of multiple Congressional seats in a cascade affect.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 12:04:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep - gerrymandering can backfire big time and exacerbate losses (especially if done to extremes). If the boundaries were drawn to maximise seats by building in (say) 5% majorities (based on historic trends) - this will result in a lot of seats flipping if the vote swings more than an average of 5%.  It also reduces the number of "safe" seats dramatically as their historic majorities are distributed to neighbouring marginal seats.

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 12:21:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hail Marys, as you know, generally don't work.  In football, they're more likely to be intercepted than completed in the endzone.  Certainly you're unlikely to win if your entire strategy for the second half of the game is to simply throw Hail Marys.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 08:42:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So "Hail Mary" is something from american footbool?

I thought it had to do with the religious-political discourse of the US.

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by A swedish kind of death on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 10:06:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nope, nothing to do with religious-political discourse.  A Hail Mary is a kind of play in American football.  It's a play you run when you have "only a prayer" of winning.  You send all of your receivers down the field, into the endzone, and have the quarterback simply throw it as far as he can towards them, hoping that someone catches it for a touchdown.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 10:16:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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