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Yes, the real fear has to be that Obama will end up triangulating and tacking to the centre like Clinton did even when he doesn't have to.  (Clinton had the excuse of not having a congressional majority).  Some suggest that he may not want to big a majority to reduce that excuse.

Nate gives the Dems a 30% chance of gaining a 60 seat Senate blocking majority.  It will be interesting to see if Obama re-engages his campaign in Georgia where he himself has only a small chance of winning but where Martin has a real chance of ousting Chambliss.

Obama has at least challenged the deregulation meme in the dominant discourse - but has yet to challenge the neo-con "New American Century" dream in national security - except to advocate negotiations with enemies.  Let's hope he is just biding his time.  

If nothing else, the changed global economy will force his hand.  The implosion of Wall street could become as significant a milestone in world history as the fall of the Iron Curtain.

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 01:13:44 PM EST
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Nate's being too conservative on his Senate projections in my opinion.  No way to really pick it up yet, but I sense things are moving fast for us in the key races, especially when you look at how guys like Martin and Lunsford have come back to dead-even so quickly.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 08:32:54 AM EST
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Hmmm, I think 60 seats is way too optimistic.

No matter how badly the nation is going, people stick with incumbents. Never underestimate the ground game of the in-state politicos. Grabbing a red senate seat in a red state is doubly difficult when all the levels of power, Governor's mansion to voting booth, are controlled by one party.

I'd put 60 seats at a 10% chance.

Not to mention that most races tighten in the last few weeks.

by Upstate NY on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 09:47:21 AM EST
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I'd call it optimistic.  "Way too opstimistic"?  No.  Unlikely, but not too optimistic.

No matter how badly the nation is going, people stick with incumbents.

In a closely fought election with the wind blowing in no obvious direction, this is generally true.  In an election resulting in a big win for one side or the other with the wind blowing clearly in one direction, not so much, especially not when the incumbents are polling in the mid-40s and are not beloved by their constituents.

In a landslide -- if one develops here -- all bets are off.

And the congressional and senatorial climate looks even more favorable this year than it did in 2006.  I submit that a win in the Georgia and Kentucky Senate races is a lot more likely than people would've suggested a Webb win in Virginia was in 2006, especially when you take Obama's ground game and impressive polling in Georgia into account.  Saxby Shameless and Senator Box Turtle are not the darlings of the ideological right that Allen was here.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 10:06:50 AM EST
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