Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
Hmmm, I think 60 seats is way too optimistic.

No matter how badly the nation is going, people stick with incumbents. Never underestimate the ground game of the in-state politicos. Grabbing a red senate seat in a red state is doubly difficult when all the levels of power, Governor's mansion to voting booth, are controlled by one party.

I'd put 60 seats at a 10% chance.

Not to mention that most races tighten in the last few weeks.

by Upstate NY on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 09:47:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd call it optimistic.  "Way too opstimistic"?  No.  Unlikely, but not too optimistic.

No matter how badly the nation is going, people stick with incumbents.

In a closely fought election with the wind blowing in no obvious direction, this is generally true.  In an election resulting in a big win for one side or the other with the wind blowing clearly in one direction, not so much, especially not when the incumbents are polling in the mid-40s and are not beloved by their constituents.

In a landslide -- if one develops here -- all bets are off.

And the congressional and senatorial climate looks even more favorable this year than it did in 2006.  I submit that a win in the Georgia and Kentucky Senate races is a lot more likely than people would've suggested a Webb win in Virginia was in 2006, especially when you take Obama's ground game and impressive polling in Georgia into account.  Saxby Shameless and Senator Box Turtle are not the darlings of the ideological right that Allen was here.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 10:06:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series