Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
The problem is that the difference is not statistically significant in each individual poll, but taking them all together, as Nate did, it is.  So pollsters generally don't do it.  Think of it as adding an extra 1 or 1.5 to Obama current total (since a few of the polls do use cells).  Perhaps it's a 9- or 9.5-point lead rather than 8.

The good news is that this would be very relevant to some places Obama and some key Senate candidates are competing in.

Four years ago, the number of cell-only voters just wasn't big enough to justify inclusion.  I still think it's iffy now but probably worth doing.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 12:36:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As you say - a 1- 1.5% bias is not significant within a poll with 3-4% error margins - but is significant in the context of the aggregation of all of those polls - especially if you add in further possible sources of bias due to differential ground games, interviewer bias, changes in "likely" voting patterns, and the growth of differential early voting which turns "likely" into "definite"

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 12:54:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Occasional Series