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As you say - a 1- 1.5% bias is not significant within a poll with 3-4% error margins - but is significant in the context of the aggregation of all of those polls - especially if you add in further possible sources of bias due to differential ground games, interviewer bias, changes in "likely" voting patterns, and the growth of differential early voting which turns "likely" into "definite"

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 15th, 2008 at 12:54:05 PM EST
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