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Your quote doesn't support your point. Ambrose is noticing a then new trend at the time the Forint came back from the brink, not the cause of the 2006 movements. The Central Banker is closer to the truth. It has to do with runaway deficits, elections and repercussions, as per my previous comment.

In 2002, the incumbent Fidesz government and the Socialist-liberal opposition ran a heated campaign with outlandish promises. When the opposition won narrowly, the then PM felt they must deliver -- and the combination of Socialist pay and pension increases and liberal tax cuts naturally led to a budget crisis. Nothing much was done about it after that PM was replaced by another Socialist, what's more, the 2006 campaign was again marked by a competition of unrealistic campaign promises. Then the really bad deficit numbers came in quarter by quarter, while the political mess (demand for recounts, riots) left economic players uncertain about what will be done. When PM Gyurcsány geared up in 'reforms' mode, things went back to normal, the Forint was maintained around 250 again.

(I note a subterfuge here: still in 2006, the Central Bank was ruled by a political appointee of the previous, right-wing governent, and there were several public confrontations on economic policy, and mutual accusations of messing up.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 27th, 2008 at 09:01:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I obviously am not too well placed to assign causes and effects to these things. What seems clear is that exchange-rate risk is excessive due to the amount of foreign loans, and that EEA free movement of capital is partly to blame. So it is vulnerable to an Asian Crisis if the capital flows reverse and a wave of defaults on foreign loans ensues.

The Forint cannot suffer a Soros-attack-on-the-pound crisis because Hungary is not in the Exchange Rate Mechanism. Now, the ERM exchange rate bands are of +- 15% and the Forint has stayed within that band centered at 250 HUF€ for many years so maybe that could be recognised as a way to facilitate speedy Euro accession.

The problem, however, is that Hungary doesn't fulfill any of the other convergence criteria. It would have to reduce its budget deficit by half, its debt by 10%, and reduce inflation and interest rates, even if it were allowed to count its exchange rate history against the exchange rate stability requirement.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 27th, 2008 at 09:20:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Speedy Euro accession = austerity programme with 'reforms'.

I note the reduction of the deficit by half will be nearly done this year (3.4% is the official predicion, inofficial expectation is still lower), but total debt doesn't improve and inflation is to remain far away from the goal.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 27th, 2008 at 09:38:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Speedy Euro Accession looks unpossible.

If there is a real crisis there are two ways out.

  • ECB intervention to shore up the Forint and bail out the Eurozone creditors. This will probably require some sort of counterpart austerity measures. This is the 'Brussels Consensus' version of the Washington Consensus.
  • The EU relaxes its state aid and free capital movement rules to allow Hungary to restructure its private foreign debt.

For either method to work you need the Hungarian government to take things seriously. As far as exchange rate policy goes they seem to be the only Central-Eastern Europe country without one.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 27th, 2008 at 12:32:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As far as exchange rate policy goes they seem to be the only Central-Eastern Europe country without one.

From what did you conclude that?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 27th, 2008 at 06:01:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just an impression from looking at the exchange rate history. Either they don't have one or they're not very successful, compared to CZ and PL.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 04:04:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I keep confusing 'cause' with 'exposure'.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 04:10:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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