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In 2002, the incumbent Fidesz government and the Socialist-liberal opposition ran a heated campaign with outlandish promises. When the opposition won narrowly, the then PM felt they must deliver -- and the combination of Socialist pay and pension increases and liberal tax cuts naturally led to a budget crisis. Nothing much was done about it after that PM was replaced by another Socialist, what's more, the 2006 campaign was again marked by a competition of unrealistic campaign promises. Then the really bad deficit numbers came in quarter by quarter, while the political mess (demand for recounts, riots) left economic players uncertain about what will be done. When PM Gyurcsány geared up in 'reforms' mode, things went back to normal, the Forint was maintained around 250 again.
(I note a subterfuge here: still in 2006, the Central Bank was ruled by a political appointee of the previous, right-wing governent, and there were several public confrontations on economic policy, and mutual accusations of messing up.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
The Forint cannot suffer a Soros-attack-on-the-pound crisis because Hungary is not in the Exchange Rate Mechanism. Now, the ERM exchange rate bands are of +- 15% and the Forint has stayed within that band centered at 250 HUF for many years so maybe that could be recognised as a way to facilitate speedy Euro accession.
The problem, however, is that Hungary doesn't fulfill any of the other convergence criteria. It would have to reduce its budget deficit by half, its debt by 10%, and reduce inflation and interest rates, even if it were allowed to count its exchange rate history against the exchange rate stability requirement. A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
I note the reduction of the deficit by half will be nearly done this year (3.4% is the official predicion, inofficial expectation is still lower), but total debt doesn't improve and inflation is to remain far away from the goal. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
If there is a real crisis there are two ways out.
From what did you conclude that? *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
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