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European Salon de News, Discussion et Klatsch - 27 October | 174 comments (174 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: Special Focus (none / 1)
From what I know, that's just what the Central Bank did.

BTW, here is a direct comparison courtesy of the Hungarian Central Bank (pdf!) -- what can you make of it?

Maybe we should do a Socratic Economics on this. I can't promise much understanding, but I can get you all kinds of graphs and data from the Hungarian Central bank and the statistical office.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 27th, 2008 at 04:47:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Special Focus (none / 1)
Here is the graph that says it all -- development of net household credit uptake:

Thick grey: total, thin grey: consumption and other credit, red: housing credit in Forints, green: in forex

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 27th, 2008 at 05:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Special Focus (none / 0)
Interesting that it started before EU accession... What is meant by "housing credit"?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 27th, 2008 at 07:25:53 PM EST
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Re: Special Focus (none / 0)
A broader term that includes all kinds of credits given for buying houses. I translated the Hungarian word literally because I'm not sure how much of that is covered by the Anglo terminology of "mortgage": say if the cover is not the house but having a fixed income and paying for 30% of the house price from the pocket, is that a mortgage?

It started before EU accession probably in the form of delayed payment credits.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 05:33:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Special Focus (none / 0)
Lets just say 'real estate credit' to avoid 'mortgage'. It is shocking that the domestic credit has gone negative.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 06:47:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Special Focus (none / 0)
Since real estate would include commercial interests, too, what about homeowner credit?

As for domestic-denominated credit going negative, what does that mean at all? Interest payments, or (early) repayments (refinancing)?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 07:54:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Special Focus (none / 0)
Well, this is 'household credit after all' - but a precise term is a bit beside the point.

I have no idea how net debt can be negative - as it has been since 2006.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 10:26:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Special Focus (none / 0)
Do you mean housing or household?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 04:07:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Special Focus (none / 0)
I used both, and both appropiately: the aggregate figure (thick grey line) is total credit for households, the two highlighted elements of it are credit to households for buying homes, e.g. housing credit.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 05:36:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Special Focus (none / 0)
So you're saying the foreign credit is mortgage credit?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 05:44:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Special Focus (none / 0)
I'm not saying anything, but from the Central Bank's graph, it does indeed appear that foreign-denominated credit in the household sector is chiefly homeowner credit. (There are foreign-denominated credits in the commercial sector, too.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 07:55:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Special Focus (none / 0)
I guess I can't make anything better than what would come out of a factor analysis...

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 27th, 2008 at 07:22:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

European Salon de News, Discussion et Klatsch - 27 October | 174 comments (174 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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