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The party system looked more consolidated in the 1990s, but there was much dissatisfaction with both conservative and former Communist governments. What happens next, depends a lot of circumstances: How will the economic crisis play out? How will socialdemocrats "rediscover themselves"? What new political figures appear on the horizon?

Existing populist parties need to consolidate to get second chances, I think. Or some may join socialdemocrats.

Some voter loyalty is visible, as core sympathies and antipathies towards the two main parties are well defined. Conservatives typically win with low voter turnout, meaning that they do not really gather much extra support, rahter enough "leftish" voters stay home. On the other turn, Homeland Union probably failed in 2000 for a similar silent reason.

by das monde on Mon Oct 27th, 2008 at 09:14:56 AM EST
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