Friday Open Thread | 86 comments (86 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

I've found something interesting, but I'm trying to figure out if I'm interpreting data correctly.

The US BLS released new employment situation numbers today that show no net increase in unemployment. Yet, they are also showing a 0.5% drop in the participation rate, and that over 1 million people were pulled from the labor force statistics. If we added in that them back into the labor force as unemployed, that would bump the U-3 rate up another 0.73 % from 6.0% to 6.73%.

Am I reading this right?

Did they seriously just fudge the numbers to show an almost full point increase in unemployment as a net decrease over the last month?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Oct 3rd, 2008 at 02:07:28 PM EST

Re: Calling all polymaths (none / 1)

Well if they did it does show a serious lack of basic adding up skills amongst the reporting classes.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Oct 3rd, 2008 at 02:30:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calling all polymaths (4.00 / 4)

The track record - Paul Krugman - Op-Ed Columnist - New York Times Blog

The track record Feel the boom
This chart shows U6, the broadest measure of unemployment and underemployment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (No data available before 1994.) You can still argue that presidents really don't have that much influence on the economy. But remember, Bush supporters eagerly claimed that downward stretch from 2003 to 2006 -- coinciding with the worst excesses of the housing bubble -- as proof that tax cuts work. Live by the business cycle, die by the business cycle.

[Click link to see the chart.]

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Oct 3rd, 2008 at 02:30:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calling all polymaths (none / 1)

Barry Ritholtz has a fairly good post on it here.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Oct 3rd, 2008 at 02:58:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calling all polymaths (4.00 / 3)

what galls me is that they've effectively cut the unemployment rate by almost a full point by "disappearing" people from the labor force. Seriously.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Oct 3rd, 2008 at 03:20:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calling all polymaths (4.00 / 3)

That's how it's done. Seriously.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Oct 3rd, 2008 at 04:13:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calling all polymaths (none / 1)

Lies, damn lies, and government statistics.

I've been meaning to tell Migeru that he needs to look at what's been happening with the reconstructed M3 money supply measure. It's been skyrocketing as a percentage of the US money supply, while the other M1 and M2 have remained static. Hmm........

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Oct 3rd, 2008 at 04:20:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calling all polymaths (none / 1)

Where is the reconstructed M3?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Oct 3rd, 2008 at 04:21:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calling all polymaths (none / 1)

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply

Is this the one?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Oct 3rd, 2008 at 05:27:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calling all polymaths (none / 0)

No.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Oct 3rd, 2008 at 06:22:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calling all polymaths (none / 1)

This one.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Oct 3rd, 2008 at 06:23:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calling all polymaths (none / 1)

That's one of the issues that's got Bernanke flipping out. It's worrying him that M2 -- M2 is the important one as it relates to GDP, employment, etc -- isn't responding to Fed policy. He's lowered rates a ton, but we're still seeing the money supply in trouble.

Another sign pointing to a steep recession, and perhaps a depression.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 4th, 2008 at 09:13:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calling all polymaths (none / 1)

From Last year

Is M3 money warning of an inflationary blow-off in the US? :: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Japan lived through this in the 1980s when it allowed property and stocks to mushroom out of control, mistakenly thinking the effects would be benign because retail price inflation was low. (The US did much the same in the 1920s but the collective mind in Washington and New York seems to forgotten that).
Capital Economics makes a different argument. Mr Ashworth said his group at first supported the Fed's decision, agreeing that (narrower) M2 was good enough on its own.
"Recent evidence has made us reconsider that position. It appears that broad money and consumer prices have begun to move in tandem once again. Over the past two years M3 growth may even have been leading core inflation by a few months," he said.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Oct 4th, 2008 at 09:56:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calling all polymaths (none / 0)

It's not that they're fudging the numbers. That's just how that particular unemployment measure is put together. Other ones -- U-6, for example -- will take account of it, I believe.

But, yeah, you read it right. When people stop looking for work, they're no longer counted as unemployed, which is why unemployment usually shoots up at the beginning of a recovery (since they're reentering the labor market).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 4th, 2008 at 09:11:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Friday Open Thread | 86 comments (86 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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