Let's do wind | 37 comments (37 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Let's do wind (none / 0)

OK, I'm putting myself at risk there (this is Jérôme territory remember).
Is the comparison fully honest when few countries adopted nuclear, for a variety of reasons that had little to do with the ability to build a nuclear plant?

If we were to have the same graph with the comparison being in the top 5 countries for each technology, wind wouldn't look as good.

This is not to say that I don't reckon wind should be a large part of the solution, I'm just trying to avoid bias.

On top of that, I have been told (by someone who works in the field, but in Australia, so maybe it's due to the peculiarities of a sparse network with few redundancies) that you couldn't run a power network with more than 25% of your sources being either wind or solar.

Is that true, and if yes why?

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 05:17:49 PM EST

Re: Let's do wind (none / 1)

If we were to have the same graph with the comparison being in the top 5 countries for each technology, wind wouldn't look as good.

For most of the 1991-2006 period, c. 80% of wind capacity was in only five countries: Germany, Spain, India, USA, Denmark. Though the reason wind played a small role elsewhere wasn't lack of technological capacity, but the lack of the legal and financial framework, I think that makes the comparison fair.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 05:22:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's do wind (none / 0)

Just checked: the five countries I mentioned were still on top and combined 78% of all installed capacity at the end of 2005. Two years later, Denmark was pushed to sixth place by China, but the original Big Five were still 70% of the global total.

(For a look at earlier situations on the wind market, see for example 1999 and 1998.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 05:46:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's do wind (none / 0)

...or just check all the data for the original Big Five plus China from 1980 (though that table is a bit incoherent: non-matching numbers taken from various sources).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 06:08:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's do wind (none / 1)

It may be true locally, with a given power grid that is not expected to get an upgrade. It may also be the unquestioning acceptance of a rule-of-the-thumb number. (And even that number is for an average.)

However, a study for one of the two Danish grid operators found that 50% wind is possible with only minor tinkering. And that's wind alone: if, in theory, you combine similar large capacities of wind and solar, there is actually a 'natural balancing' between the two that reduces the combined intermittance.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 05:26:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's do wind (4.00 / 3)

I didn't want to answer Starvid and his bias, so i'll put it here.

On the day we dedicated the new wind tunnel, there was enough wind in Schleswig-Holstein that some 120% of the entire Land's energy came from wind. The rest was either exported or dumped, because the grid is not yet reinforced. In a sane future, north Germany would have exported southwards a huge slice of the country's needs. What happened last week was not an anomaly.

Grid balancing with the addition of other technologies, both future renewables and existing plant, is not magic. Rather, the new paradigm of grid management using existing technology goes up against entrenched archaic views, hence Australia's "25%" number, which comes out of thin air.

The entire Spain has been over 100%, as has Denmark. This does not mean that wind alone is a solution, for there are times when there is no wind. But such occurrences point out that we're not talking about technical problems here.

In terms of cost, should we check wind v. natural gas in a few years, since every wind turbine that has paid its debt produces electricity for about a cent and a half... for the next 15 years.

The intermittency argument is a sham red herring from the opposition, period. No one intends to live with existing grids into the future, because smart grids and cross-border wheeling have already proven themselves. The E.ons of the world just need a bit of prodding as it were... with some firebrands if necessary.

ferchrissake, there are wind turbines which can black start.

Wind reinforces the grid. Wind minimizes voltage fluctuations. Wind diminishes transmission losses.

And wind keeps both local and international economies humming, including all levels of real jobs, from the truck drivers and service techs to the data crunchers to bankers and lawyers.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 06:10:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's do wind (none / 0)

OK, you can have much more at times. But you still need significant other sources for when there is no wind, and he was explaining that there was an issue with the speed of ajustment when new power was needed.

What percentage could we have for the whole of Europe (wind and solar combined) in terms of capacity?

Before my friend gets some abuse about this 25%, may I say that he is trying to get his State (Tasmania) to invest more in renewables (combining with hydro would seem to be a good idea there). He would welcome more wind!

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 06:24:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's do wind (none / 0)

PS: I don't know about Starvid's bias in that respect, but it seems to me that he was pretty much in agreement with you that wind would have to become much bigger for excessive density to become a problem.

By which time technology may have evolved to make it not a problem at all.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 06:26:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's do wind (none / 0)

It's already not a problem where annual incursion is over 20%. All the short-term backup in virtually all modern grids is already built in. Demand side management is the new technology which allows for intermittent generation such as wind to co-exist beautifully.

Just think for a moment, over 100% of all electricity in Schleswig-Holstein (which probably includes most of Denmark as well) was for a period from wind. Not one disco was shut because the turntables revolved too slow.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 06:46:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's do wind (none / 0)

if the turntables slowed I would simply change from electronic dancing style to hip-hop dancing style.

The stage 1 and stage 2 energy alerts in California (voluntary energy reduction) have worked in the two years I've lived here. So much of it is purely cultural. Low wind and high temps? Just require commercial lighting to turn off at night so the air conditioners can run.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 07:15:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's do wind (none / 0)

Crazy Horse:

ferchrissake, there are wind turbines which can black start.

What do you mean? That they can start without power?

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine

by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 07:06:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's do wind (none / 0)

Remarkable how optimistic you are, even after living some time in the land of the bread. ;-)

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 09:03:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's do wind (none / 0)

LOL

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 03:40:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's do wind (none / 1)

you couldn't run a power network with more than 25% of your sources being either wind or solar.

The wind doesn't blow all the time. That means you have to be able to compensate power surges and declines using fast reacting power generators like gas and hydro. When you get more than about 20 % wind that becomes hard to do.

But this is really a pseudo problem. Wind is currently like 1 % of all power generated while even nuclear is just 15 %. That is, wind have to become bigger than nuclear power before we even need worry much about this issue.

Only Denmark has reached 20 % wind.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 05:31:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

20% (4.00 / 4)

20% is what you can do with only minor tweaking of the network. But it's possible to go much higher if you invest a bit more in the grid. This has to be one of the silliest arguments against wind when it's only providing 1-3% of electricity.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 05:43:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Like I said (none / 0)

this is really a pseudo problem [...] wind have to become bigger than nuclear power before we even need worry much about this issue.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 06:18:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Like I said (none / 0)

Is there any reference available for a study on this issue on the internet?

I think a study by an electricity grid regulator would be a good argument to quote. Because pro-wind rule of thumb alone is not enough to balance no-wind rule of thumb.

by Xavier in Paris on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 01:39:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Like I said (none / 0)

No "pro-wind rule of thumb" -- actual studies. The one I cited is mentioned here:

DANISH WIND INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION - 50% wind energy in the grid is feasible

Grid integration of up to 50% wind energy in the Danish electricity system by 2025 is technically and economically feasible according to a new study from the system operator Elkraft System.

"The system is on an hourly basis able to absorb a vast amount of wind power. The system will reach its critical limit - meaning a situation where it is necessary to shut down wind turbines - only a few hours during the year," says Hans Henrik Lindboe, engineer in Elkraft System.

The starting point for Elkraft's new assessments has been an expansion of Scandinavian wind power by 17,000 MW. Wind energy installations in Denmark can expand from 3,100 MW today to 5,000 MW in 2025.

Also in 2005, EWEA released a large study on grid integration, you can read the full pdf. While it doesn't zoom in on one quote-able high-end number, I quote a longer passage from the executive summary:

...In the west-Denmark
transmission system, which is not connected to the
eastern part of the country, some 25% of electricity
demand is met by wind power in a normal wind year
and, on some occasions, the wind has been able to
cover 100% of instantaneous demand.
The integration of large amounts of wind power is often
dismissed as impossible and many grid operators
are reluctant to make changes in long established
procedures to accommodate wind power. In Denmark,
the grid operator was initially sceptical about how much
wind power the system could cope with. The attitude
of many grid operators to wind power can best be
illustrated by the following quote from Eltra, the TSO in
west-Denmark, at the presentation of its annual report.
...Seven or eight years ago, we said that the electricity
system could not function if wind power increased above
500 MW. Now we are handling almost five times as much.
And I would like to tell the Government and the Parliament
that we are ready to handle even more, but it requires
that we are allowed to use the right tools to manage the
system».

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 01:55:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Like I said (none / 1)

thanks for posting that DoDo, i haven't had time to post, refuting the idea that some of us are just "pro-wind." The average reader here has no idea of the three decades experience behind the comments, and the number of reports, studies, and operational hours by the hundreds of thousands that some of us have.

In germany (auf Deutsch) there are the E.on and DENA studies, but i can't translate them, i can barely read them. But they're so positive especially coming from entities which were the biggest barrier just a few years ago.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:30:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Or check my earlier diaries (none / 1)

This one or This one (the last part of the text).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 02:19:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Let's do wind | 37 comments (37 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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