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This is shaping up to be a Re-Alignment Election.

After Second Presidential Debate, Undecideds Move Toward Obama - Obama 57%, McCain 43%

The highest spike (most number of outcomes) of simulation runs on FiveThirtyEight

is 375 EVs.

Same site gives:

Obama Win:  90.7%
McCain Win: 9.3%
Obama Landslide (375+ EV): 36.74% - in the Obama Win percentage that percent of the time he wins by that many EVs or more.

Same site gives a 25% chance of the Democrats getting 60 Senate seats.

My compilation of various sites looking at House races indicates the Democrats will pick-up House seats, anywhere from 17 to 70.  At this point - who knows?

McCain is in Iowa.  Again.  For a day.  Why?  Beats the holy living crap outta me!  Reckon his next blitz will be California.  (Makes as much sense.)

The AARP (50+ million members) has a couple of page spread in their latest magazine - I get it for the porn ;-) - and "supports Obama 100%" noting, "McCain didn't bother to answer some of the questions."  (!)

Countering the trend is:

  1.  The GOP is sitting on a large sum of money ($50 Million?) they can throw at Obama in the next 25 days.  

  2.  The Unknown - anything that is unpredictable, such as Obama being assassinated, a terrorist attack, & so on.  (One tin-hat scenario has McCain being wounded by an assassin to swing public sympathy to him.)

The GOP has to break the trend or they are going down with a thud.

 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 07:22:01 PM EST
Yep - the national trend actually tightened a bit from a 7.9 to 5.9 Obama lead on Pollster.com but this includes some slightly dodgy polls - and also on RCP (but he excludes any polls like research2000/DKOS which tend to favour Obama).  

However the news at state level has all been good for Obama with even W. Virginia swinging his way.  Only Indiana and Georgia, of the winnable states, are still holding out.  Montana may yet become marginal as well.  Obama'a ground game may still win it in Indiana.  Tracking polls have yet to fully reflect Obama's debate performance and the economy is still tanking - so even if Obama flatlines at this level it becomes an inevitability as election day approaches.

McCain is doing great in Texas, Alaska, Alabama, Idaho, Arkansas, Utah etc.where it matters not a damn and where probably people aren't even paying attention because there are no ads, no organisations, and no local campaign events.

McCain seems to be getting increasingly desperate and Obama has some good ad material with Video clips of "that guy" "kill him" and the crazy attempt to link him to Vietnam era terrorism. Palin's far right allusions raise the spectre of race war all over again and moderate independents just don't want to go there.

McCain's proposal to buy up/renegotiate bad mortgages seems to have disconcerted his own base more than anything and allowed Obama to portray him as flaky (even though Obama may end up doing something similar).

Cheney's plan to nuke Iran this fall seems to have become unstuck when the Air force refused to cooperate, so I'm not sure what options the GOP have left to try and avert a blow-out.

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 10:02:22 PM EST
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