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This is shaping up to be a Re-Alignment Election.

After Second Presidential Debate, Undecideds Move Toward Obama - Obama 57%, McCain 43%

The highest spike (most number of outcomes) of simulation runs on FiveThirtyEight

is 375 EVs.

Same site gives:

Obama Win:  90.7%
McCain Win: 9.3%
Obama Landslide (375+ EV): 36.74% - in the Obama Win percentage that percent of the time he wins by that many EVs or more.

Same site gives a 25% chance of the Democrats getting 60 Senate seats.

My compilation of various sites looking at House races indicates the Democrats will pick-up House seats, anywhere from 17 to 70.  At this point - who knows?

McCain is in Iowa.  Again.  For a day.  Why?  Beats the holy living crap outta me!  Reckon his next blitz will be California.  (Makes as much sense.)

The AARP (50+ million members) has a couple of page spread in their latest magazine - I get it for the porn ;-) - and "supports Obama 100%" noting, "McCain didn't bother to answer some of the questions."  (!)

Countering the trend is:

  1.  The GOP is sitting on a large sum of money ($50 Million?) they can throw at Obama in the next 25 days.  

  2.  The Unknown - anything that is unpredictable, such as Obama being assassinated, a terrorist attack, & so on.  (One tin-hat scenario has McCain being wounded by an assassin to swing public sympathy to him.)

The GOP has to break the trend or they are going down with a thud.

 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 07:22:01 PM EST

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