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Daily Kos: Lots of missing votes

AK - 29% fewer votes than 2004
CA - 18% fewer votes than 2004
OR - 19% fewer votes than 2004
WA - 19% fewer votes than 2004

For comparison, look at NC:

NC - ~22% MORE votes than 2004

Most states that seem to have counted all their votes are about 10% higher than 2004 (which is consistent with expected total votes of ~135M).

Which other states had increased turnout?

GA - 19% MORE votes than 2004 (and I think some early votes are still missing)
IN - 12% MORE votes than 2004
NV - 19% MORE votes than 2004
SC - 20% MORE votes than 2004
VA - 12% MORE votes than 2004

Other states also seem to be odd, with the following 6 being the only states where Obama did worse than Kerry:

WV - 5% fewer votes than 2004, and Obama did worse by 1%. Have the early votes been counted?
OK - flat with 2004 and Obama matched Kerry (Did OK have early voting?)
AR - 4% MORE votes than 2004, and Obama did worse than Kerry by 6%. (Did AR have early voting?)
LA - 2% MORE votes than 2004, and Obama did worse by 2.6%. (Did LA have early voting, or did all the Democrats leave after Katrina?)
MA - Obama did worse by 1%, but this was Kerry's home state.

In every other state, Obama received a higher percent of the vote than Kerry (even DC, 93% for Obama vs 89% for Kerry).

So what's the point?

In CA, still likely to be 2.5M votes to count. Some of the counties with the biggest drop from 2004 to 2008 are Mendocino, Monterey, San Bernardino, San Francisco, Solano, and Sutter. So the vote on prop 8 will get closer when these absentee / early votes get counted.

AK still has a LOT of votes to count. Begich may still pull it off.

Obama's margin will continue to climb, and may hit 10 million by the time all the votes are counted. His percent margin may also get closer to 8%.

Question: Which states had early voting that may not have been counted yet?

In other words Obama's margin will continue to climb as more early and absentee votes are counted, and his overall margin of victory may have been reduced by west coast voters not bothering to vote when an Obama victory seemed assured.  My +10% victory margin prediction may not have been all that far off after all...

Why are there so many votes still unaccounted for?

How good is the custody of early/absentee votes?

Why is there so little newsflow on this?

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Nov 6th, 2008 at 06:42:55 PM EST
The western states are still counting. They're a bit slower than the rest. For various reasons (they say it's because of the mail-in ballots but it could be sloth if you ask me). You'll note that these are all western states.

The Begich campaign told Kos that there were 60-75 thousand votes left to be counted. That's in a state with 663 thousand residents.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Thu Nov 6th, 2008 at 07:06:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm still quaint and old fasioned and like it so you dont declare the results till the votes have all been counted....

plus like my results declaring by an official counter rather than a partisan TV station.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 03:03:40 AM EST
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I'm even more old fashioned and don't like any results being declared (however provisional) until polls have closed in every state.  I would even ban opinion polls in the last 48hours.  There is far too much perceptions management going on under the guise of free information.

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 04:28:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The western states do not exactly have much value in terms of perceptions management. The management of perceptions can otherwise swing both ways. The perception of a democratic victory may well have depressed Republican turnout in states like New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, while depressing Democratic turnout in Alaska.

I agree on banning polls, preferably in the entire last week before the election.

In the end, Americans have a more radical conception of freedom of speech than we do. So they arrange their democracy accordingly. It's not a topic I feel very deeply about, as long as it's going on over there and not here in Europe.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 05:43:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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