Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
I've seen yet, thank you. I can see I should have studied economics. Well, it's not too late.

One point resonates with me, the psychological tipping point when the shopper leaves the queue is an aspect that can be affected to a certain extent. (Store management could hand out candy to waiting shoppers, that's exactly what we do and yes, it works.) I have already noted that the fall in oil prices has taken place largely after the notion that the situation in Iraq has settled down somewhat. Into this chaotic mix, lets toss in Obama's election, and the possibility of, if not a new direction, then perhaps a shifting emphasis in US policies, both foreign and domestic.

I withdrew all my money from the equity markets years ago, thinking that the market was in bubble-mode when the Dow Industrials hit 10,000, I hadn't been watching the financial news, but, of course, lately I've tuned into CNBC, where Mark Haines regularly dismisses the news, good or bad, as having any effect on the market.

Of course, handing out candy only goes so far, and the messages coming out of the US establishment from the White House on down have been pretty much just that for the last 7 years.

Right now on CNBC, there's some guy named Harrison who's telling us that retail numbers are going to be "disastrous" this year (his word), and that the consumer is scared. Likely this is an overstatement, and what we see here (with a characteristic overreaction in the markets) is a long-overdue tightening of belts in an overheated economy fueled by cheap money, unrealistic expectations, and too much free-market ideology being bandied about.

But like I say, I'm not an economist.

Very good diary, Rec'd and hotlisted. Thanks again.

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Mon Dec 15th, 2008 at 07:07:19 AM EST
I can see I should have studied economics.

No, you shouldn't. This stuff is dynamical systems theory. You should have studied physics or control engineering :-)

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 15th, 2008 at 07:18:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that is what economics actually is?

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire
by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Mon Dec 15th, 2008 at 07:47:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe that's what it should be...

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 15th, 2008 at 07:52:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
maybe even most of it, is equilibrium relationships.  Dynamics doesn't enter in much.
by tjbuff (timhess@adelphia.net) on Tue Dec 16th, 2008 at 09:14:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't that just what economists would like it to be about?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Dec 16th, 2008 at 09:21:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure makes the math easier.
by tjbuff (timhess@adelphia.net) on Tue Dec 16th, 2008 at 09:27:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I just did a book search for "Dynamic systems." I don't want to tell you what titles the miserable text search returned, manga, new age self improvement, "how to fly a kite", etc....

There's one System dynamics title. Hmmm. Looks like I'll have to learn MATLAB as well.

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Mon Dec 15th, 2008 at 07:55:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Dynamical systems?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 15th, 2008 at 08:04:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is a little book I like.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 15th, 2008 at 08:05:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the link to the book, too bad Amazon is down for me right now, but I will check it later.

Wikipedia has a nice little entry on Systems Dynamics.

When I'm done with my Phd (which has still a few years to go) my long term goal is to do research on Systems Architecture, especially trying to build Languages to support it.


You might find me At The Edge Of Time.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Mon Dec 15th, 2008 at 09:18:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's called Response and Stability: An Introduction to the Physical Theory by A. B. Pippard. It seems to be out of stock or out of print: all the copies on sale are used...

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 15th, 2008 at 12:45:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
most of the foreign policy titles I read are out of print, so I buy used copies all the time. No problem there. Response and Stability has been added to my Barnes and Noble wish list. Probably delve into it later this winter.

Thanks all :)

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Mon Dec 15th, 2008 at 10:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I like Strogatz Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos.

It won't drag you though all kinds of mathematical PNing, but it does have sufficient structure and rigour that it's possible to do a self-study from it.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Dec 15th, 2008 at 01:30:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A $265 book. I should buy two :)

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire
by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Mon Dec 15th, 2008 at 10:52:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
250 US$? You're being ripped off. I didn't pay more than 70 US$ (although that was back when the US$ was half again as expensive as it is now...). Call it a round hundred in today's exchange rates.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 16th, 2008 at 05:11:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Eh? This one? £30 from Amazon.co.uk?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Dec 16th, 2008 at 05:18:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, we should just spare people the expense and write a bunch of diaries...

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 16th, 2008 at 05:29:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... except I paid Danish VAT on it too...

Y'know, I support this whole "paying taxes" thing, but sometimes I wish the ways around paying taxes were a little less obvious and/or a little less legal - I can't quite tell whether it's ethical to pay a tax you can easily and legally get around, or just plain stupid...

But hey, it's worth what I paid for it, so why am I complaining?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 16th, 2008 at 07:04:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That appears to be the original edition, and there's a 2nd edition out, and yes the hardcover is indeed $265. On further investigation, I find the paperback's also available though, at $95.

Hmmm, no used editions. It'll have to wait then. I have lots of other reading lined up.

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Wed Dec 17th, 2008 at 01:30:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Any control engineer would find what's happening to oil prices very familiar.
by tjbuff (timhess@adelphia.net) on Tue Dec 16th, 2008 at 09:11:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series