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Thanks for the interesting link.
But if really "liberalizing the labour market, weakening union power and State regulation of business, and reducing taxes" is meant, Paul Betts is quite out of touch with 'neoliberal' econimists and conservatives in Germany.

Liberalizing the labour market just in a moment where a boom starts to destabalize? So the buisinesses have not employed people before, because they were afraid they could not get rid of them in times of crisis and when the crisis comes, the rules are changed?
And of course discrediting conservative politics for years.

Tax cuts are now requested more by left leaning econimists for stabilising demand, when it falters in the US, while Merkel has announced, no tax cuts until the federal budget is balanced - which can take some more years.
The alternative of course would be creating some demand by stopping the fall of overall wages as part of the GDP, but how this can be achieved with weakening union power right now.

But of course Jerome a Paris justifies conservative politics. The income tax in France he quotes is much lower than in UK or the US. The reckless spending of Bush and Blair in the last years, which might have created some short term stimulus, comes at a high price, as the money was borrowed mostly from other countries. The true conservatives are in continental Europe, not in the anglo-saxon countries.
If the US was an anglo-saxon country as the image is, right now the Fed would raise rates, the Gov would increase taxes or cutting spending (with 50% or a trillion$/a military spending it should not be difficult to find something to cut), nobody would even speak about stimulus on credit. While in Europe there is some consistence between talk and action, in the US they usually do the opposite of what they recommend for others.
And, by the way, the per capita growth rate for Germany in a link Jerome a Paris provided the German per capita growth for 2006 and 2007 was understated. I'm curious for 2008, but if German per capita growth will be higher in 08 than the French one, I would think that real conservative policy has done a good job.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 06:00:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

But of course Jerome a Paris justifies conservative politics. (...) The true conservatives are in continental Europe, not in the anglo-saxon countries. (...) if German per capita growth will be higher in 08 than the French one, I would think that real conservative policy has done a good job.

Before I react, can you explain what you mean by "conservative"? I think we are in agreement, but I'd rather be sure I understand what you mean.


While in Europe there is some consistence between talk and action, in the US they usually do the opposite of what they recommend for others.

Indeed. That's one of the things I write about all the time.

As a general comment, I am generally more favorable to the "Rhenan" model of capitalism, whether in its French, German or other versions, and a lot of my writing is about how the French and German economies are mostly unfairly criticised in the English language press.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 07:59:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not a long term reader of English language press, but in this case I refer to politics, which even American conservatives are claiming to be conservative.
Low income taxes, a balanced fiscal budget, a sustainable foreign trade balance, low inflation. I think all of this will be better next year, both in F and D, than in the US.
But in Germany there was even fulfilled another conservative rule, namely low income growth. I have seen you have a median income diagram, where there was not so much income growth in the US, but the average income rose quite significant in the US. In Germany the average income stagnated as well quite a bit, while the GDP grew.
Now some people are afraid that if the US has recession, this will hit Germany very strongly due to the high export dependency. If this is true and there is a US recession, then France should do better this year than Germany I think. If Germany can manage a US recession I would be quite convinced, that as well the sluggish income growth in the last decade was not so bad.

Of course conservatism is not only about economics. E.g. religious or at least some philantrophic philosophy is as well part of conservatism. And again, the US conservatives talk all the time about Jesus and abortion and how important the church is, but if one looks to the policy actual done, I can't see much of this talk to transform into substancial politics. In Europe there is always a sense for helping those who can't help themselves, what is part of what distinguishs conservatism of liberalism.

Taken literally conservatism of course means as well no fast change and a certain cautiousness with it. Therefore e.g. climate change or war should be horror for every conservative, as well as completely unregulated "wild" market.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:09:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is an interesting comment, because it shows how far the right in many countries (but not Germany) has strayed away from the traditional conservative policies which you describe. The right is, in many places (and, ofcourse, nowhere more in the US), very radical, both on the economic and social fronts.

And the fact is that the political left is now much better at implementing "conservative" (ie reasonable center-right) policies - but it also means that no mainstream political forces are still around to defend traditional leftwing policies.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 03:12:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think regarding the UK you are certaily right. I'm as well not too familiar with French politics, but as far as I know the last 13 years there was a conservative president in France and no radical gov elimination took place.

I would be as well interested what you think about http://www.shadowstats.com/
or would like to know from where you have your "real" GDP numbers. I think nominally F, D and the USA have about the same GDP/capita when one takes todays USD/Euro exchange. All the time people tell the Euro is overvalued against the USD. But isin't this mainly due to the pegging of many Asian countries?
You claim that France has ca. 80% of the real US GDP, and even only when one take the .1 % richest out. Wouldn't that mean, that our pricelevel is ca. 30% higher than the US one?
With oil, food and commodities traded internationally and only ca. 10% difference in VAT, it seems to me a bit unlikely, that the US and EU price levels are so different.
Due to that I would argue, that in the Bush years F and D did not only nearly as good as the USA, but actually better, which of course would not change your implications, but may even strengthen them.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2008 at 05:31:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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