McCain would be good for Europe in a very narrow way.

McCain will have zero expectation for Europe and vice-and-versa. More of the same shit, no change in direction, no hub-hub, same old spite. Each side its own way. The US careening into militaristic decay and economic irrelevance and Europe muddling around in its usual little dance: one step forward, two steps backward, four on the side.

With Democrats on the other hand, the expectations are going to be very high, at least on the American side. They're gonna turn towards Europe and expect to be back in the game as if nothing happened. Delusions of American Exceptionalism are very strong and in my opinion resurgent among Democrats. I can already picture Obama flying in European capitals, all proud and shining of his brand new "historical" victory, the "New JFK" and the second coming of Holy Ronald Reagan all rolled in one, and explaining in grand rhetorical flourishes how everything is going to get better thanks to American Leadership(TM). They really believe that shit.

Well, I expect European opinions to lap it up - to a point - but with governments, it's not gonna play well at all. Both sides are not talking the same language. Atlanticism is dead because all the Atlantists from the post-war era are dead. And after 8 years of Bush glaciation, a lot of old habits have died and there wasn't a lot to said for the old habits in the first place. May be you forgot but it was already pretty rough with Clinton. Even if the Bush disaster makes that period positively look like heavens, things were not going well at all between the US and Europe. It was actually pretty tense and bitter.

The Clinton I team managed to be both totally inept and perfectly cynical with Europe. Their bully number worked for them in some ways. Well, it's not going to get better. 15 years later, Americans still believe they are calling the shots like in the 90s.

I don't expect anything good from Clinton but no much bad either. Same cast as before. With Obama, well, we have a situation. The potential for a complete misunderstanding is pretty phenomenal. His style and the expectations he's setting in his campaign are going to be a big liability in relations with Europe. And then there is this little business with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's Subcommittee on European Affairs where he just spent the last year broadcasting that he doesn't give a shit about Europe.

There is plenty of nasty business to sort out: the Euro/Dollar relation, the contagion of the US financial meltdown in Europe, military cooperation in Afghanistan, the mess in Iraq (if the US thinks they are going to be able to just walk away ...), global warming, trade with China, oil supply security, Israel, etc., etc., etc.

Everything has been put on ice with Bush. There's no one to talk to anyway. McCain would continue the trend and Europe would have to grab its own arse and solve its problem on its own, the usual messy, ineffective way but its own way. At least, high-level trans-Atlantic relations won't get worse - they are inexistent - and everybody on each side will still be able to dream of the day everything gets better.

But if a Dem is elected, no more forlorn longings of sweet hope. It's show-time. All the shit is going to come out, with a severe misperception of the respective positions. The US is going to need very active help from Europe to clean up the shit. On the other hand, Europe can perfectly do nothing - out of disorganization or out of sheer passive-aggressive spite - and watch the US take the brunt of the crap while keeping the upper hand by default. No European unity is needed. It doesn't even need to be deliberate. All that Europe needs to do to gain relative power and influence against the US and in the world is to sit on its hands. No one will win. But in the mess, Europe will take its lump and still come up on top of a hugely diminished US. A lot of Europeans would be very content with that.

I'm not sure there is anyone who fully understand that last point in Washington DC. They still don't realize that the world has changed and that they don't have the luxury of taking anything for granted anymore. Yet, from what I see with the Democrats, they still waxing lyricals on American Leadership(TM) and the Natural, God Ordained and Self-Evident Goodness of America. After 8 years of Bush, they still don't have a clue and they are supposed to be to the good guys.

Unless there is a very cool head in the US executive to impose a very, very modest tone within the American side, the landing in Europe is gonna be very rough.

So I'm wondering if no landing at all is not a better solution. It would let four more years for reality to sink in.