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... the US to become the largest economy ... though it would do to check whether or not the Sino-Japanese productive zone is already larger than NAFTA or the EU, in PPP terms ...

There are no guarantees in how the long cycle plays out. It is a long term process that has been playing through what was originally the Euro-Atlantic region since shortly after the Americas began to be incorporated into the region, and once ... with Britain ... the dominant economy of one cycle succeeded itself, rather than giving way to another economy.

However, we are definitely nearing the end of the line for the technological regime that this cycle has been based upon, so that if China does not pass the US in size sometime in the next ten years, as expected, the US cannot rest secure that it remains the hegemon by default.

When a technological regime has played its course, there is no default ... everyone is forced to try to cope with the change in circumstances,  and some society will find that its economy has coped better than the rest.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Feb 18th, 2008 at 12:37:51 PM EST

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