41000 CDU voters did not show up.
11000 SPD voters did not show up.
16000 GAL voters did not show up(!)

Main other crossover from CDU is to the FDP: 11000 votes.

Main other crossover from SPD is to the Linke: 9000 votes.

GAL loses 10000 to SPD; 6000 to Linke.

FDP gains additional 5000 total votes from SPD, GAL, Other, but loses 3000 to no-shows rather than gaining any (which cost them their 5% mark).

Linke gain additional 3000 from CDU; 9000 from no-shows; 17,000 from other parties. Thereby, 26000 Linke votes come from outside the 4 party electorate, and 18000 from CDU/SPD/GAL (net difference with FDP is roughly 0).

The fact that 2/3rds of the Linke vote comes from people who did not vote; other parties, and the CDU is a very strong argument in favour of having the Linke as a party in the West, from the POV of SPD and Greens (and yes, also mine).

Meanwhile the SPD, but even more the Greens really have to worry about not being able to mobilise their voters. The Greens, I think, lost even more to no-shows than the CDU when you look at proportions. There must have been something seriously wrong with their ground game, or their campaign in general. Once again, it's all about GOTV.