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I find it strange that nobody has mentioned the "Kosovo precedent" in this topic.

Russia has clearly stated that she will use the Kosovo model and apply it to unrecognized states in former Soviet Union.

Meaning that after EU and US recognition of Kosovo indepence, there is a very big chance of Russia recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state

This makes any future negotiations rather impossible.

Why Nagorno-Karabakh should settle on anything less than independence if you are recognized as such by the UN Security Council member?

Conversely, then any attempt by the Azerbaijan to recover Karabakh will be labelled by Russia as an agression against an independent state. (Also, Russia and Armenia have a military alliance. Independent Nagorno-Karabakh would probably be invited to that alliance as well.)

by citatel on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 11:46:24 PM EST
Welcome to ET, citatel!

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 06:28:42 AM EST
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Nagorno-Karabakh is kind of cool on the Kosovo precedent, and not too keen to use the Russia connection. And Russia has absolutely no finger in this pie, other than balancing between a weak ally (Armenia) and an ascending oil and gas (power) which drifts away but is always ready to listen to Russian concerns.

The last thing Russia would wont is to get into troubles with the West over Nagorno-Karabakh.

by Sargon on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:28:19 PM EST
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