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Russia has clearly stated that she will use the Kosovo model and apply it to unrecognized states in former Soviet Union.
Meaning that after EU and US recognition of Kosovo indepence, there is a very big chance of Russia recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state
This makes any future negotiations rather impossible.
Why Nagorno-Karabakh should settle on anything less than independence if you are recognized as such by the UN Security Council member?
Conversely, then any attempt by the Azerbaijan to recover Karabakh will be labelled by Russia as an agression against an independent state. (Also, Russia and Armenia have a military alliance. Independent Nagorno-Karabakh would probably be invited to that alliance as well.)
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