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Lots of asset managers are already going into equities, precisely because it is the only kind of assets that has the slimest chance of offering returns close to (real) inflation (the one even TIPS won't beat).

Because least-indebted global fortune 500 companies with pricing power will be able to inflate their revenue as fast as, or faster than, general inflation. Of course, there may still be a temporary downturn in the near term, but when you're just price-averaging your rebalancing from bonds to equity, now is still a good moment to start.

I'd be wary of bonds, of all flavors, mortgage, corporate, sovereign, municipals: basis risk is demonstrably terrible. spreads might swing in any direction any time because of a deleveraging of some obscure player anywhere in the world. And remember: the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Pierre

by Pierre on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 06:16:03 PM EST
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