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Friedman would see inflation as a tax more than as debt being repudiated, though, I think. And on that, I'd agree with him, one of the rare things... The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
'Debt repudiation' was an insight that I appreciated - it gave me something tactile to hang on to while I try to figure out the other stuff ;-) You can't be me, I'm taken
In this case, one "other" phenomenon is the recurrent crises in which an economy sheds debt. "You've let money grow faster than real GDP," the Monetarists can/would/have said. "Of course you have a problem." But they don't talk about debt as a claim on real wealth, or how GDP doesn't measure real wealth. (As a measure of wealth it's grossly overinflated--it counts costs as benefits, decreases in wealth as wealth. Air pollution leads to increased lung disease; people spend money to get treated; by the measure of GDP, this is all win-win.) Since the Monetarists are using a basic indicator that is flawed, they can't predict/explain debt repudiation crises as well as the Soddy/Daly EE model.
If wealth as measured by GDP grows at the same rate as the claims on it (which are also imperfectly measured by increases in the money supply; debt is another kind of claim on future real wealth, a claim whose size has some relation to, but is not totally determined by, the size of the money supply), things look hunky dory. BUT GDP is not real wealth, money is not the sum total of claims on real wealth, and the inevitable balancing of real wealth and the claims upon it comes as a surprise in the Monetarist paradigm.
I'm just sketching this out as I go along; the Q is a good one, one I haven't thought or read about before. I don't know that anyone has tackled an answer from within EE.
The other crucially important thing that the new, EE model makes central (and which the monetarist, or neoclassical economics, or NCE model) doesn't see at all, is the thermodynamic foundation of an economy. An economy sucks low entropy matter and energy out of its environment, spins it around in the production "cycle" (in quotation marks because it is really a one-way flow) and spews out matter and energy that is degraded (pollution) or which must, with time and use, become degraded: consumer items, capital. Food. Autos. Solar cells. All of it. In geologic time, all that stuff ends up thrown "away"--in a landfill or cast upon the planet somewhere.
That is, as Nicholas Georgescu Roegen put it, (I paraphrase from memory): "considered solely as a thermodynamic system, an economy consists of nothing other than a set of human institutions, practices and conventions dedicated to taking valuable low entropy and turning it into valueless waste." (He went on to point out that that was of course not the point of the economy, but that it existed to provide us with "an immaterial flux: the enjoyment of life.")
The economy has an ecological footprint on both the uptake and output sides. The size of that footprint determines how much nature is left to go through its cycles, supplying us with ecosystem services, on which civilization crucially depends: water purification. Water (rainfall and storm surge) regulation. Climate moderation (both globally and locally). Pollination services. Soil nutrient recycling. Etc. etc. Ecological Economist Robert Costanza led a team that priced out world ecosystem services, and found that by a conservative estimate they are triple the value of world GDP.
So, this isn't NCE monetarism, by a long shot.
Great Q. Industrial society is not sustainable. Unsustainable systems change--or disappear.
So much conventional economics is still about gaining competitive advantage for parts of the economic world order at the expense of other parts, the ultimate zero sum game, and so little is devoted to improving sustainable capacity (or reducing unsustainable footprints) overall. I think we probably need a new Einstein to bring economics to an entirely new level - one that explains current phenomena, but can also make a decent shot of predicting the shape of things to come. "It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
I think we probably need a new Einstein to bring economics to an entirely new level - one that explains current phenomena, but can also make a decent shot of predicting the shape of things to come.
There are many great intellects out there: all they need is a new set of assumptions, and off they go.
I think that on the basis of an assumption - a Metaphysics of Value - that Value is definable only in relational terms, and an understanding that "Property" and "Money" are only relationships, not Objects, then it is possible to build an entirely new Economic theory from the ground up.
IMHO Such a theory would have a good chance of making better predictions because it is, as Wheeler put it, asking the right questions of Reality. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
To me, it's obvious and intuitive, but I don't have the breadth of knowledge, the intellectual foundations, the language or the logical capability to explain why. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
I wish I understood what you're on about with "the metaphysics of value"
A Metaphysics of Quality is just another perspective of a
Metaphysics of Quality
You will see there, still on the front page, an old paper of mine "If not Global Capitalism, then What" from which this is an extract...
The Metaphysics Of Value Robert Pirsig, in his books "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance" and "Lila" sets out a case that Western civilisation has long been under the thrall of an artificial division between "Subject" and "Object". He proposed that the primary reality is "Quality" which is both formless and indefinable. It is not a "thing" but an event at which the subject becomes aware of the object and before he distinguishes it: ie a non-intellectual awareness or "pre-intellectual reality". Quality is the basis of both Subject and Object. The bad "Quality sensation" one gets from sitting on a hot stove leads to a consciousness both of oneself - the Subject - and the stove - the Object. Pirsig went on to distinguish between "Static" and "Dynamic" Quality, where the static order of one level forms the precondition for the establishment of a "higher" level. The perspective I offer upon a new form of Economics more nearly related to Reality (based upon empirical observation) is based upon treating Value as a form of "Quality" as envisioned by Pirsig. Another perspective upon Value is that of the writer E C Riegel - who in his posthumously published book on monetary matters "Flight from Inflation" - defined "Value" as " the Relativity of Desire" again implying indeterminacy. Taking Pirsig's approach Capital may be viewed as "Static" Value and Money as "Dynamic" Value. "Transactions" are the "events" at which individuals (Subjects) interact with each other or with Capital (both as Objects) to create forms of Value and at which "Value judgments" are made based upon a "Value Unit". The result of these Value Events or Transactions is to create Subject/Object pairings in the form of data ie Who "owns" or has rights of use in What, and - by reference to some form of Value Unit - at what Price. This data we recognise as accounting data. Note at this point that modern "Neo-Classical" Economics confuses indeterminate Value with a market- determined Price - a confusion best summarised by Oscar Wilde's definition of a Cynic as "someone who knows the Price of Everything and the Value of Nothing". Data may be static such as the written word, or magnetic polarities on computer discs; or dynamic, such as the packets of energy passing between databases and defined under the "Internet Protocol". This Data identifies the subject with objects such as tangible `Material Value' - such as Land, Commodities, Goods and Services; energy ie`Calorific Value' derived from oil, gas, and other fuels and source. Data may itself constitute `Intellectual Value' - such as music, video, information, the written word and software and may exist in electronic or tangible form. It, too, may then be defined in a subject/object pairing through the concept of "intellectual property". Other forms of Value are however not definable by data: who has not paid more than an object is "worth" because it has "sentimental" Value? In particular we see:`Emotional Value' - at its most basic, the need to love and to be loved, but extending into the concept of Society; 'Spiritual Value' - who am I? Why am I here? Questions in relation to God and the relationship with the eternal. We may therefore look at the "transaction" or "value event" in a new light. We may, for instance be prepared to exchange Material Value for the right to watch a film - Intellectual Value - from which we derive Spiritual and/or Emotional Value. As these different types of Value accumulate they form Static Value/ Capital, in Material, Intellectual or other forms. The creation and circulation of Value essentially comprises the concept we know of as "Money".
The Metaphysics Of Value
Robert Pirsig, in his books "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance" and "Lila" sets out a case that Western civilisation has long been under the thrall of an artificial division between "Subject" and "Object".
He proposed that the primary reality is "Quality" which is both formless and indefinable. It is not a "thing" but an event at which the subject becomes aware of the object and before he distinguishes it: ie a non-intellectual awareness or "pre-intellectual reality".
Quality is the basis of both Subject and Object. The bad "Quality sensation" one gets from sitting on a hot stove leads to a consciousness both of oneself - the Subject - and the stove - the Object. Pirsig went on to distinguish between "Static" and "Dynamic" Quality, where the static order of one level forms the precondition for the establishment of a "higher" level.
The perspective I offer upon a new form of Economics more nearly related to Reality (based upon empirical observation) is based upon treating Value as a form of "Quality" as envisioned by Pirsig.
Another perspective upon Value is that of the writer E C Riegel - who in his posthumously published book on monetary matters "Flight from Inflation" - defined "Value" as " the Relativity of Desire" again implying indeterminacy. Taking Pirsig's approach Capital may be viewed as "Static" Value and Money as "Dynamic" Value.
"Transactions" are the "events" at which individuals (Subjects) interact with each other or with Capital (both as Objects) to create forms of Value and at which "Value judgments" are made based upon a "Value Unit".
The result of these Value Events or Transactions is to create Subject/Object pairings in the form of data ie Who "owns" or has rights of use in What, and - by reference to some form of Value Unit - at what Price.
This data we recognise as accounting data. Note at this point that modern "Neo-Classical" Economics confuses indeterminate Value with a market- determined Price - a confusion best summarised by Oscar Wilde's definition of a Cynic as "someone who knows the Price of Everything and the Value of Nothing".
Data may be static such as the written word, or magnetic polarities on computer discs; or dynamic, such as the packets of energy passing between databases and defined under the "Internet Protocol".
This Data identifies the subject with objects such as tangible `Material Value' - such as Land, Commodities, Goods and Services; energy ie`Calorific Value' derived from oil, gas, and other fuels and source.
Data may itself constitute `Intellectual Value' - such as music, video, information, the written word and software and may exist in electronic or tangible form. It, too, may then be defined in a subject/object pairing through the concept of "intellectual property".
Other forms of Value are however not definable by data: who has not paid more than an object is "worth" because it has "sentimental" Value?
In particular we see:`Emotional Value' - at its most basic, the need to love and to be loved, but extending into the concept of Society; 'Spiritual Value' - who am I? Why am I here? Questions in relation to God and the relationship with the eternal.
We may therefore look at the "transaction" or "value event" in a new light. We may, for instance be prepared to exchange Material Value for the right to watch a film - Intellectual Value - from which we derive Spiritual and/or Emotional Value. As these different types of Value accumulate they form Static Value/ Capital, in Material, Intellectual or other forms. The creation and circulation of Value essentially comprises the concept we know of as "Money".
If that doesn't explain what I mean, then tough, it's my best shot: at least I know what I mean! ;-) "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
at least I know what I mean!
Don't shoot the piano player, he's doing his best... "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
Ooops !
I mean
A "Metaphysics of Value" is just another perspective of a "Metaphysics of Quality". "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
Value is definable only in relational terms.
Well, maybe not. Everything we value has low entropy that we can make use of (though not everything that has low entropy has value for us).
No animal can sustain itself by eating its own excrement--the excrement is a degraded, low-entropy output of the animal's life processes--though some animals (like bacteria and dung beetles) have evolved to eat the low-entropy outputs of others.
I'm suggesting that a metaphysics of value has to account for two things:
Some values are relative. You like pictures of Elvis painted on velvet, and I like poster-sized copies of impressionist paintings, and my friend won't stand to have any reproductions hanging in his house at all. Each of these is "low entropy"--a bit of organized matter (not decayed pulp and faded ink or paint)--but we each value what we like, and wouldn't pay money for the other. This is the subjective part of value, and why it's true to say that not all low entropy has value for us. (Poisonous mushrooms are "low entropy," but they don't have value for us either.)
But some values are objective. Everyone prefers food that has not been eaten to food that has already passed through another person's digestive system. A gallon of gasoline is more valuable than the exhaust, waste heat, and water vapor you produce when you burn it. Coal is more valuable than ashes. High grade ores are more valuable than low grade ores, and concentrated ingots of metal you can produce from them (with additional inputs of energy) are more valuable than either. Low entropy is the physical basis of value.
Subject, object, neatly united in one metaphysics.
Check out the assumptions of the emergent field of Ecological Economics. This is the field in which you'll find Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, whose "The Entropy Law and the Economic Process" stands as this field's equivalent to Smith's "Wealth of Nations." It's a paradigm that accepts that economic activity is not exempt from the laws of thermodynamics; and that, in fact, in the absence of entropy, we'd have no need for a science of economics, since every good thing ever made would still exist, and we could push cars backwards to fill their gas tanks. They don't and we can't; therefore, we experience scarcity; therefore, there's a niche for the science of thinking rationally and carefully about how to satisfy human wants with scarce means. No entropy, no scarcity; no scarcity, no economists. Entropy makes economists useful; it's a shame that more of them haven't returned the favor.
My diary contains a few citations leading to more info about this field. Minds are working in it. Industrial society is not sustainable. Unsustainable systems change--or disappear.
Some values are relative.
Pirsig's approach - which I follow - is that all Value (or Quality) is relative, and definable only in relative terms, by reference to criteria or benchmarks.
Your approach is to use entropy as a criterion or benchmark for Value and indeed you identify "low" entropy as valuable, as distinct from "high" entropy.
So low entropy (however defined and measured) is relatively more valuable than high entropy.
I am not familiar with this approach, but it does have appeal. Nevertheless it is an approach which requires a "Value judgment" - which may be subjective or objective.
ie yours is, again, a "Subject/Object" Metaphysics.
A "Metaphysics of Quality" (or of Value - it's the same reality being addressed)is IMHO a completely different approach, and Pirsig's work repays reading, or re-reading, in understanding it. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
And it's a very powerful, romantic story--lone wolf tracking a powerful idea, standing fast against conformity, smug self-satisfaction, and sheer hermetic wrong-headedness. It's been an exemplar for me.
But I do think that the thermodynamic point of view has something to offer. Not that I would replace a "labor theory of value" or a "socially constructed" (i.e. neoclassical economic, utility-based) "theory of value" with a "thermodynamic theory of value." Low entropy doesn't capture all of what we (humans) mean by "value." But that persepctive has a lot to show us; and one implication seems to be, that value has an irreducibly objective component. There's simply no way that the valuation of cast metal as being more valuable than the ore from which it was made is a subjective valuation; the former has lower entropy than the latter, and low entropy is always and everywhere prized above high entropy. Industrial society is not sustainable. Unsustainable systems change--or disappear.
So low entropy (however defined and measured) is relatively more valuable than high entropy. I am not familiar with this approach, but it does have appeal. Nevertheless it is an approach which requires a "Value judgment" - which may be subjective or objective.
You cannot extract all the energy out of a physical system. All you can do is extract what is called the "free energy" but which might be better called "usable energy". And the usable energy of a system is its energy content minus the temperature times its entropy content.
So low-entroy matter can be turned into high-entropy matter at a net energy gain. That is, in fact, the only way to get any energy.
Low-entropy energy from the Sun is radiated away into space as high-entropy heat. This would happen even if the Earth was a lifeless rock. Life (and the economy) feeds of this entropy flow by taking as much of the "free energy" as possible and turning it into structure rather than let it be lost as heat.
Whether things should have a value proportional to their "free energy" content is a different story, and they probably shouldn't. It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
Hmmm...so how does fission/fusion and e=mc squared come into it then? "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
I am guessing (and I would appreciate being corrected if I am wrong) that GDP emerged or at least became important around the time that computerised records of transactionbased taxes came into existence. Suddenly it was very easy to calculate the tax base in a society. Fun for economists who wanted to do models. And a growing tax base/capita is important as it allows politicians to serve free lunches, in way of lowering taxe rates and keeping the same service or increasing service and keeping the same taxe rates. But tax base sounds so mundane, lets call it GDP.
(Frequent readers of ET may already have read this in some other comment.) Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
I am guessing (and I would appreciate being corrected if I am wrong) that GDP emerged or at least became important around the time that computerised records of transactionbased taxes came into existence.
Kuznets is credited with revolutionising econometrics, and this work is credited with fueling the so-called Keynesian "revolution". An important book of his is National Income and Its Composition, 1919-1938. Published in 1941, it contains a historically significant work on Gross National Product. His work on the business cycle and disequilibrium aspects of economic growth helped launch development economics. He also studied inequality over time, and his results formed the Kuznets Curve. ... There are two developments at Kuznets time: the emergence of econometrics and the Keynesian Revolution, both of which found in Kuznets's data an important resource for their advancement. Kuznets, however, was neither a Keynesian nor an econometrician - he took his cues from Mitchell's Institutionalism - as exemplified in his 1930 methodological pieces. Whereas Mitchell devoted his life to the study of business cycles, Kuznets turned to other fluctuations - seasonal ones and secular movements - then to national income estimation, and later to studies of economic growth. As a result, his initial work was on the empirical analysis of business cycles (1930) - a 15-20 year cycle he identified was later attached to his name, the "Kuznets Cycle".
...
There are two developments at Kuznets time: the emergence of econometrics and the Keynesian Revolution, both of which found in Kuznets's data an important resource for their advancement. Kuznets, however, was neither a Keynesian nor an econometrician - he took his cues from Mitchell's Institutionalism - as exemplified in his 1930 methodological pieces. Whereas Mitchell devoted his life to the study of business cycles, Kuznets turned to other fluctuations - seasonal ones and secular movements - then to national income estimation, and later to studies of economic growth. As a result, his initial work was on the empirical analysis of business cycles (1930) - a 15-20 year cycle he identified was later attached to his name, the "Kuznets Cycle".
The data don't bear this out; but that rarely gives a neocon pause.
I contributed to the entry on the EKC in The Encyclopedia of Earth, a gated wiki. Industrial society is not sustainable. Unsustainable systems change--or disappear.
And it would be great if NPR's "Marketplace" would start reporting the ISEW everytime they report on GDP. Come to think of it, that's an idea I'll see if I can get anywhere with. Industrial society is not sustainable. Unsustainable systems change--or disappear.
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