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Actually you won't find a direct correlation between periods of low inflation and periods of high bankruptcies. Because debt accounting creates a time shift between the two. The debt repudiation we are about to see in the near future are the result of the low inflation of the past 10-15 years (compared to the previous 20, and even the post-war 30 years).

What you should be able to measure is a time-netted amount of inflation and debt repudiation, which only averages low for long periods. But there are actually large (and larger) swings of the pendulum. Right now we are long debt, and about to turn long inflation (past the next two years of hard but short deflation I think).


by Pierre on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 01:38:12 PM EST

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