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diary!  If we have a serious recession, the air could come out of oil to the tune of 25% pretty fast.  

There is a lot of fast money chasing yield/short term profits right now.  My money market deposits have crashed from the 5% to the low 3% in just a few months.  It's very tempting to buy something, but what?  Real Estate? Nope, still puking.  Stocks?  Tried that, burnt fingers.  Many are chasing commods.  No way with my own money -- ever.

Great charts.  Esp. the inflation corrected one.  Really puts this rally into perspective though I really, really doubt we get a puke out like 81-86 again.  80% fall -- that was an ugly time in the oil biz.

by HiD on Thu Mar 13th, 2008 at 05:42:27 AM EST
I really, really don't want to hurt analysts, but...

Bloomberg.com: Energy

This is the 10th straight week that analysts have forecast a decline in prices. They were correct in two of the eight weeks through March 7. The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of prices 51 percent of the time since its introduction in April 2004.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Mar 14th, 2008 at 06:24:47 AM EST
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I hear you.  This is not really a market.  OPEC really is an effective cartel now that only Saudi matters a tinker's damn.
by HiD on Wed Mar 26th, 2008 at 07:35:45 AM EST
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Incidentally, I have a question to you as a professional trader.

In what way do you think crude prices would have been different in 1980, had there been a futures market?

My hunch is that with the much faster market response to news, there would have been panic peaks followed by declines, while on the spot market back then, 'panic peaks' were conserved for weeks to months, and thus just added up. In other words, maybe prices wouldn't even have climed as high as they did on the spot market back then.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Mar 14th, 2008 at 06:29:41 AM EST
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bit before my time, but IIRC WTI made its appearance about 1982 and has always been pretty volatile.

My gut says the volatility occurred in 1980.  It just took place in the cash market out of sight of the average consumer and the media.  

Perhaps it was less then just because the 7 sisters had a much bigger piece of the pie and the producing nations were still under their thumbs.

by HiD on Wed Mar 26th, 2008 at 07:17:34 AM EST
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