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As to where it's headed - gasoline consumption is already contracting in the U.S., as are jobs and, now, retail sales. Yes, there are still 'market forces' that operate to some degree. The company from which I will soon retire exports a substantial portion of our product (actual, manufactured-right-here product) to Japan. The recent changes in the ratio of the yen to the dollar has resulted in a heavy volume of quotations - with a lot of associated pressure on being prepared for a quick ramp-up. And, yes, we may be the exception, more than the rule, because so much manufacturing capacity in this country is either dilapidated or gone.
As far as reduced profits and business bankruptcies, no doubt whatsoever. USians are headed for big and bigger problems. "Deleveraging" is at hand.
Meantime, there is inflation here. If you want to blame it on the fact that oligarchical capitalists control costs, government, prices, 'markets', media, etc., I agree completely.
If you want to talk in terms of theories of economics, then: 1) military spending cycles money while reducing the production of goods that actually enter the real, recycling economy; 2) printing money in excess of simple replacement causes "more money to chase the same amount of goods"; 3) raising component costs increases price in non-competitive markets (majority of the consolidated U.S. markets nowadays). All of these are inflationary. paul spencer
1) military spending cycles money while reducing the production of goods that actually enter the real, recycling economy;
True. But the US will be obliged to withdraw from Empire because it is simply no longer sustainable either in material (particularly energy) and increasingly exhausted human resouces.
I think we all agree that the redeployment of the military industrial complex into US infrastructure and particularly renewables is the solution here. A War on Carbon if you like.
ie an entire new generation of manufacturing, which I believe the US may still be capable of (but maybe only if they call the baby boomers out of retirement to mentor the generation brought up to serve in Macdonalds.....)
2) printing money in excess of simple replacement causes "more money to chase the same amount of goods";
Firstly, this is not happening. The "replacement" requirement will actually run into the trillions of dollars, such is the extent of the US asset land value bubble. The Fed isn't even scratching the surface.
Secondly, merely providing "liquidity" in this way merely circulates existing money and avoids deflation. New money is needed for any new development, and the mechanism for providing it is fucked, because what the Fed is not doing is rebuilding Banks' balance sheets in terms of their Capital.
The Nordic (and Northern Rock) solution to this is nationalisation - which simply is not going to happen in the US. So, a "Capital rebuild" can only happen from future Bank profits, and if they ain't lending much then that reduces the scope for future profits as well.
This will be a sloooow process, as in Japan, and definitely not in itself an inflationary one.
3) raising component costs increases price in non-competitive markets (majority of the consolidated U.S. markets nowadays). All of these are inflationary
Here you presume pricing power that increasingly no longer exists because - thanks to the Anglo Disease - the poor bloody consumer is only able to keep buying by borrowing, and that option is now over.
So, either they absorb component price increases (and profits dive) or they go out of business. Quite possibly both. "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
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