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you left out the most salient ingredient of high inflation in the U.S. in the '70s. This was the rise in military spending, spiked in particular by the war in Viet Nam. The elder Keynesians (World War II vintage) might have promoted a war-oriented economic mobilization, but their acolytes acquiesced to the politicians' desire to have both 'guns and butter'.

Beyond the effect on the money supply available for normal consumption, the Keynesians in government lost support among their liberal cohorts, simply because they did not oppose the war per se to any meaningful degree. A non-economic effect to be sure, but Heller, et al, became persona non grata to most opponents of the war. Simply put, their economic theories/activities also lost moral standing.

One other matter - the current situation does not include control of inflation. If you want to say that 'asset deflation' is the main issue, OK. But the monetary inflation rate - at the level of actual mass consumption - is high, the rate is increasing. The recent $200 billion dump announced by Paulson in favor of the usurers will redound in further inflation rate increases.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (paulgspencer@gmail.com) on Thu Mar 13th, 2008 at 02:22:30 PM EST
paul spencer:
The recent $200 billion dump announced by Paulson in favor of the usurers will redound in further inflation rate increases.

We've had a lot of recent discussion on ET about this.

This "dump" is aimed at keeping existing money in circulation, and does nothing whatever to repair bank balance sheets. IMHO it cannot therefore lead to inflation, as new bank lending (based on repaired balance sheets) maybe - and only maybe - would.

But of course there will be little or no new bank lending as their balance sheets are bad and getting worse. I really cannot see any serious new US bank lending for a generation.

The situation is similar to what happened in Japan, only it will be much worse in the US due to the low US underlying/ underpinning land rental values - land being in short supply in Japan but not in many of the worst hit parts of the US.

In truth, I think US credit institutions aka banks are terminally fucked, and that the only conventional solution is the Swedish one (or come to that the current UK one!) of nationalising the lot.

Which. Will. Not. Politically. Happen. (unless someone pops something hallucinogenic into Obama's coffee if he gets in)

Unconventionally, on the other hand, it is possible to refinance all the mortgage-backed crap in a "Debt/Equity swap" on a cosmic scale. This is achievable by "unitising" land/property rentals using LLC's or similar to create "Land/Property Rental Pools" - ie residential quasi REIT's.

Investors would just have to get used to a 1 or 2% index-linked return - which might be a welcome relief from the current negative real returns from holding "risk free" T-bills right now.

Btw Paul, a key reason for the use of a "Custodian"  is that the LLC solution you are applying - where the LLC owns the property - cannot easily "scale" and network, for just the same logistical and administrative reasons why stock markets globally are all underpinned by Custodians such as Northern Trust.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu Mar 13th, 2008 at 03:41:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
- mostly. And you may be correct about the "custodian" vs. direct-LLC-ownership question. But - in the marketplace of ideas, I lean toward the Free Market. In other words we will try both approaches in practice and review/compare/contrast/analyze the data as it emerges.

As to inflation - yes, there has been a lot of discussion on ET (which is another reason that this site is so much more useful than so many other sites). The "dump" is aimed at circulating money, but it is another transfer from taxpayers - present and future, assuming non-repudiation - to the financial corporations. And, yes, it will not enhance lending, because the banks, investors, and related financial institutions will just be handing these dollars around among themselves. And, yes, it will take nationalization of the banks to create the possibility (not the certainty) of correction.

Meantime, the proof of the inflationary aspect of the "dump" has emerged almost immediately: the price of oil futures in US$, which then becomes a component increase in the cost of every other aspect of economic life - in the U.S. at least. Why do these markets - and the currency exchanges - downgrade US$? Because they know that the printing presses are running 24/7 with no increase in real value to warrant the money increase. That is inflation.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (paulgspencer@gmail.com) on Thu Mar 13th, 2008 at 05:14:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
paul spencer:
Why do these markets - and the currency exchanges - downgrade US$? Because they know that the printing presses are running 24/7 with no increase in real value to warrant the money increase. That is inflation

That's the $64 billion issue in relation to inflation: the relationship with the world outside the US.

Sure, an increase in the price of oil or other raw materials imported raises "costs" and to a greater or lesser degree gets passed on, thereby causing "Inflation" to the extent that these costs are a component of the end product.

But since the money will increasingly no longer around in the US to buy anything but essentials, I think that many businesses are simply going to be unable to pass on these increased costs, and we'll see profits taking a hit and/or businesses going bust.

ie what we may well see is value = "money's worth" (not dollars, because no-one will take them) draining out of the US (and exports booming, if the US is capable of producing stuff the rest of the world wants, beyond arms and ammo).

But I don't see inflation beyond that because there will not be "too much money chasing too few goods": the problem will be the on going "black hole" of "deleveraging" which was identified (Migeru, I think) in a really interesting thread a while ago which got on to Japanese deflation.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu Mar 13th, 2008 at 06:46:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
create their own counter-force. Inflation is the current reality, though, as you would certainly be aware if you were a consumer here.

As to where it's headed - gasoline consumption is already contracting in the U.S., as are jobs and, now, retail sales. Yes, there are still 'market forces' that operate to some degree. The company from which I will soon retire exports a substantial portion of our product (actual, manufactured-right-here product) to Japan. The recent changes in the ratio of the yen to the dollar has resulted in a heavy volume of quotations - with a lot of associated pressure on being prepared for a quick ramp-up. And, yes, we may be the exception, more than the rule, because so much manufacturing capacity in this country is either dilapidated or gone.

As far as reduced profits and business bankruptcies, no doubt whatsoever. USians are headed for big and bigger problems. "Deleveraging" is at hand.

Meantime, there is inflation here. If you want to blame it on the fact that oligarchical capitalists control costs, government, prices, 'markets', media, etc., I agree completely.

If you want to talk in terms of theories of economics, then: 1) military spending cycles money while reducing the production of goods that actually enter the real, recycling economy; 2) printing money in excess of simple replacement causes "more money to chase the same amount of goods"; 3) raising component costs increases price in non-competitive markets (majority of the consolidated U.S. markets nowadays). All of these are inflationary.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (paulgspencer@gmail.com) on Fri Mar 14th, 2008 at 12:01:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
paul spencer:

1) military spending cycles money while reducing the production of goods that actually enter the real, recycling economy;

True. But the US will be obliged to withdraw from Empire because it is simply no longer sustainable either in material (particularly energy) and increasingly exhausted human resouces.

I think we all agree that the redeployment of the military industrial complex into US infrastructure and particularly renewables is the solution here. A War on Carbon if you like.

ie an entire new generation of manufacturing, which I believe the US may still be capable of (but maybe only if they call the baby boomers out of retirement to mentor the generation brought up to serve in Macdonalds.....)


2) printing money in excess of simple replacement causes "more money to chase the same amount of goods";

Firstly, this is not happening. The "replacement" requirement will actually run into the trillions of dollars, such is the extent of the US asset land value bubble. The Fed isn't even scratching the surface.

Secondly, merely providing "liquidity" in this way merely circulates existing money and avoids deflation. New money is needed for any new development, and the mechanism for providing it is fucked, because what the Fed is not doing is rebuilding Banks' balance sheets in terms of their Capital.

The Nordic (and Northern Rock) solution to this is nationalisation - which simply is not going to happen in the US. So, a "Capital rebuild" can only happen from future Bank profits, and if they ain't lending much then that reduces the scope for future profits as well.

This will be a sloooow process, as in Japan, and definitely not in itself an inflationary one.


3) raising component costs increases price in non-competitive markets (majority of the consolidated U.S. markets nowadays). All of these are inflationary

Here you presume pricing power that increasingly no longer exists because - thanks to the Anglo Disease - the poor bloody consumer is only able to keep buying by borrowing, and that option is now over.

So, either they absorb component price increases (and profits dive) or they go out of business. Quite possibly both.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Mar 14th, 2008 at 06:07:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
paul spencer:
Meantime, the proof of the inflationary aspect of the "dump" has emerged almost immediately: the price of oil futures in US$, which then becomes a component increase in the cost of every other aspect of economic life - in the U.S. at least. Why do these markets - and the currency exchanges - downgrade US$? Because they know that the printing presses are running 24/7 with no increase in real value to warrant the money increase. That is inflation.
By how much did the oil futures price jump in response to these $200M from Poulson?

It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 14th, 2008 at 06:21:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is the $200 billion dump attributed to Paulson or Fed? I see quite a difference on taxpayers' balance.

As I understand, Fed is lending $200 billion to big banks, allowing the "worthless" collateral of mortgage-backed securities. In other words, Fed is taking worthless CDOs and such toxic stuff to relieve the banks; but that does not dramatically hurt the Fed, does it? The operation looks like a limited debt forgiveness act to me, and it may have workable effects. What else can be done when the core problem is debt disbalance?

As for the Vietnam and other wars: 'coups of bankers' were loving wars since long times. In the US, they are running much of the show since 1913. I even wonder, how on Earth they allowed so much Keynesianism...

by das monde on Fri Mar 14th, 2008 at 02:37:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ChrisCook:
Unconventionally, on the other hand, it is possible to refinance all the mortgage-backed crap in a "Debt/Equity swap" on a cosmic scale. This is achievable by "unitising" land/property rentals using LLC's or similar to create "Land/Property Rental Pools" - ie residential quasi REIT's.
I'm beginning to think this "debt/equity swap" is the only way to preserve the (maybe reduced) cash flows in case of a default of the debt.

It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 14th, 2008 at 06:20:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, I have heard the "guns and butter" argument for years and have not even been a LITTLE convinced.  There was no problems with the economy until we ran short of a real product--namely oil.  There was no shortage of food, or steel, or labor, or industrial capacity, or housing, or anything else.  But when it became clear that we didn't have enough oil to control the price, then everything else unraveled.

Of course, because MOST economists have NEVER understood the value or importance of energy, they addressed the shortage of oil with usury.  And 35 years later, the same fools are prescribing the same stupid "cures".  And they call economics a science.  Like hell it is!

I cannot treat economists seriously until they comes up with a believable scheme to organize substitutes for oil. And if that means every hedge fund on planet earth goes bust in the process, well that will just be a plus.

"Remember the I35W bridge--who needs terrorists when there are Republicans"

by techno (reply@elegant-technology.com) on Thu Mar 13th, 2008 at 09:37:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
techno:
Of course, because MOST economists have NEVER understood the value or importance of energy

...unlike the Technocrats...

Energy Accounting

Has there been a Diary on Technocracy? I know there's been some references along the way.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu Mar 13th, 2008 at 09:45:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
techno:
I cannot treat economists seriously until they comes up with a believable scheme to organize substitutes for oil.

Not just oil, but non-sustainable resources of every sort.

Today's crank economics - which as someone said recently is about as sane, empirical, coherent and effective as Galen's medical texts - assumes that money is the primary resource, and money can buy anything it wants to.

The money has to be good money, but as long as there's enough of it in at least some peoples' hands, shortages are impossible.

This is crackpot nonsense, for obvious reasons.

There are only two core commodities - scientific, engineering and cultural inventiveness, and raw resources, including energy sources.

Any useful system has to take these as the basis of its accounting system, and make 'money' contingent on them.

Chris's land credits and oil credits are all specific cases of this more general principle.

And if you turn the view around to consider sustainables as a valuable potentially everlasting resource, you get the interesting result of having an element of 'natural prosperity' - a constant source of 'income' which potentially underpins the rest of the economy, and is available for free.

Non-renewables become very much more expensive in this frame - how can you price something which literally can never be replaced?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Mar 13th, 2008 at 11:12:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ThatBritGuy:
Non-renewables become very much more expensive in this frame - how can you price something which literally can never be replaced?

But as we saw only last night, it is quite possible to apply energy to carbon dioxide and water and come up with the products (eg gasoline & petrochemicals) of "non-renewables".

Doing so will become "economic" when the energy cost of that process is less than the energy cost of other sources. ie the "price" of crude oil becomes the energy content.

IMHO the unmatched US human/intellectual resources currently wasted on the military are capable of doing just this, if only the "enterprise model" existed for them to do so.

At the moment the choices are between:

(a) State provision (a new, and Keynesian, New Deal) which is politically unacceptable in the US; and

(b) conventional Capital - "Equity" and "Debt" - which is fucked, probably terminally.

But I believe that unconventional "unitisation" of future land and energy value streams not only squares the investment and monetary circle, but will do so in a networked way from the ground up.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Mar 14th, 2008 at 06:33:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but it's the framing and it's connection to reality that needs to be clarified.

If you frame the environment as half the source of all prosperity - which ultimately it is, being the source of all raw materials and energy inputs - you can cost the value of resources of every type more realistically than if you count products of raw resources in terms of their nominal economic utility.

This is why biofuels are such a fiasco. In terms of natural prosperity economics they're not just barely cheaper, if at all, than oil, they're shuffling deck chairs around by taking energy from one place - food production - and moving it to another.

Natural prosperity accounting would make shifts like these explicit and central, not peripheral and easy to disguise.

Of course you still have to account for more conventional utility. But the equation becomes:

value = resource taxes (including energy inputs) x innovation multiplier x human conscription ('work') x desirability x profit

In a natural prosperity economy, the only true source of profit is the innovation multiplier, so traditional corporate profit - which is 'rent' paid on 'capital' - will have to be eliminated.

Infinitely renewable resources, or intellectual and creative products which use no physical resources at all, will pay no resource taxes. Extremely scarce items will pay very high taxes. If - and only if - ways are found to make them less scarce, the taxes can be lowered.

Desirability engineering can be used to create demand, but it should be valued less than original innovation.

And I don't agree with the use of land as a key resource. It's certainly one key resource, but it's also a return to a feudalism of sorts.

If I happen to find a gold-mine under my house the value of my land increases dramatically, and accounted for - and probably taxed - accordingly.

Value of land is a very contingent concept, which is why it can't be counted as a primary resource.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Mar 14th, 2008 at 07:31:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed.

That's why Energy Accounting could only have come from people who discount all other forms of "value".

ThatBritGuy:

And I don't agree with the use of land as a key resource. It's certainly one key resource, but it's also a return to a feudalism of sorts.

Exactly: but I advocate a form of feudalism where tribute is given to Society generally, and not an individual with a bigger axe than you have...

Like it or not, most of the value in circulation (more than two thirds in the developed world) is in fact land-based.

I advocate getting rid of the current overlay of financial claims on land, and essentially reinventing the "property" relationship.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Mar 14th, 2008 at 08:58:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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