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Thanks for this explanation.  To put it in really layman's terms, you are using part of your funds to lay a bet that the market will go down.  When the market does go down, you win your bet, and this compensates for the losses you suffer in the rest of your (non-inverse portfolio).  If the market goes up, you lose your bet, but this is compensated for by the gain in the rest of your portfolio.

So basically it is a method of dampening the volatility in share prices, and reducing your overall exposure to risk (and reward).  It allows you to to keep your investment in the market even when you think it is likely to go down in the near term.

Given that much of market volatility is driven my market sentiment rather than real changes in the performance and prospects of the underlying companies, it seems a sensible strategy to adopt - particularly if you think the risks remain on the downside.  

Of course the $Million question is now - is the balance of probability - now on the up or on the downside - particularly in the Euro area.  I remain a bit of an optimist that the Euro area can adjust and prosper at a reduced rate of Growth - whereas the US still has some way to fall before there is any sustained bounce.  Is that similar to your reading?

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Mar 26th, 2008 at 08:16:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Except right now I'm all short/bearish. I have no other equity investments, all the rest is medium term fixed income. I don't think European economies can really decouple, firstly, and secondly even if the shock is dampened compared to the US, it will still be a meat grinding in the euro stock market, for the following reasons:
  • one third of euro large caps are financials, with US credit exposure,
  • the industrial euro large caps are globalized companies with revenues in dollar, so their P/E in euros is bound to degrade,
  • one third of capitalisation of euro large caps is US mutual/pension funds and banks, which are about to become net sellers for the first time in 50 years (lock in the gains including forex, pay the retirees, the 401k raiders, repair the balance sheets...)


Pierre
by Pierre on Wed Mar 26th, 2008 at 08:54:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Agreed on all of the above, but where are the Chinese and Oil exporters going to put all their loot - the stuff they used to put in dollars? What about smaller caps and those Euro companies with almost no direct US exposure?

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Mar 26th, 2008 at 09:45:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Small caps are not part of the headline indices.

In addition, if the financials do poorly it will strngle the credit for the real economy.

It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 26th, 2008 at 09:52:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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