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Except right now I'm all short/bearish. I have no other equity investments, all the rest is medium term fixed income. I don't think European economies can really decouple, firstly, and secondly even if the shock is dampened compared to the US, it will still be a meat grinding in the euro stock market, for the following reasons:
  • one third of euro large caps are financials, with US credit exposure,
  • the industrial euro large caps are globalized companies with revenues in dollar, so their P/E in euros is bound to degrade,
  • one third of capitalisation of euro large caps is US mutual/pension funds and banks, which are about to become net sellers for the first time in 50 years (lock in the gains including forex, pay the retirees, the 401k raiders, repair the balance sheets...)


Pierre
by Pierre on Wed Mar 26th, 2008 at 08:54:52 AM EST
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