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Look, I don't disagree at all. She's not merely entitled but rather has every right to continue campaigning as long as she chooses. (It's no secret that I don't like her, but I'd be the first to defend her if she were told otherwise.) Hell, even if it became mathematically impossible for her to win, she'd still have the right to fight out any remaining contests.
I'm on-board with the view that we're stealing the limelight from McCain for the moment. But that is, as I think you'd agree, wholly dependent upon the public perception of how the contest is being handled by Obama and Clinton. And I do think we're rapidly approaching, if we haven't already passed it, the point at which the public sours and sees it as a childish game of tit-for-tat. (Good strategy in game theory, not good for winning elections.) If and when that point is crossed, the contest will need to end quickly if we're to hope for an undamaged nominee.
However, so far, there is little evidence this has damaged her in the polls.
Actually, although I have no idea what's causing it, her favorable ratings are plummeting in the NBC poll to be released tonight that First Read has now written about (down to an all-time low of 37%). For the record, that's her lowest since March of 2001, when she took office after being pounded as a carpetbagger in New York.
Now, granted, the same poll gives her a statistically insignificant lead over Obama among primary voters (although an also-statistically-insignificant worse showing when comparing O and C against McCain), but there ya go.
My bet -- and it is that I agree with you -- is less a bet that they'll ultimately unite the party. (I think McCain will do that for them in the end.) It's more a bet based upon the fact that Dems so clearly outnumber Reps, and that such a huge chunk of Indies lean towards the Dems. Couple that with the fact that we're in a time when a GOP president is about to preside over his second recession, and when the (unbelievably unpopular) Iraq War is starting to hit the news again with violence rising in Basra, and it's difficult to see how the Dems don't pull it out even after a bitter primary.
That said, I think guys like Kos are kidding themselves if they believe it's in the bag. We're not going to beat McCain by making him unlikable. (That's just not going to happen.) We're only going to beat him by focusing the contest on how incredibly wrong he is on everything. And that's difficult because of the magic of message (more specifically, blurring). He's damned good at playing the Old Noble Servant. (I have to salute the Reps. They picked their strongest guy, even though they all hate him.) And that's not easy to counter at a time of crisis, even when the McCains of the world produced it. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
We're not going to beat McCain by making him unlikable. (That's just not going to happen.) We're only going to beat him by focusing the contest on how incredibly wrong he is on everything.
I think making him unlikeable is the only way to win. Bush won - kind of, anyway - because he played the likeable guy at the bar.
He was also incredibly wrong about everything. And only a minority of people go that ahead of time. If voters cared about wrong, Bush would never have had more than 30% of the vote.
McCain meanwhile has the advantage of being an obvious patriot and hero. He's white, he's ex-military, he's totally American[tm].
He's also senile and psychopathic. But don't expect voters to care about that.
So the only way to take him down would be to break that identification with America, or to be so very much more charismatic that he becomes insignificant.
Hillary, who is certainly living up to the Lady Macbeth tag, isn't capable of either. Her sniper-fire attempt to play the hero turned into a media farce.
Obama might be. He understands media and rhetoric, while McCain's handlers don't seem quite so deft. And the McCain himself is clearly losing it.
Obama's way to winning is to wrap himself in the flag, run with the 'We're all Americans' line he's been using, and crowd out McCain's media presence. He can then be likeable and quasi-approachable at the same time as he's presidential.
McCain doesn't have that kind of charismatic ammo at his disposal. He'll appeal to the stiff old patriots and the Washington cynics, but not so much to anyone else.
She started with a hard negative of ~40%. Her attacks on Obama has alienated Obama supporters and other Democrats and that's being reflected in her rising negatives. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
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