Can the Democrats re-unite? Who is really going to win the US Election (Part 7) | 64 comments (64 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Can the Democrats re-unite? Who is really goin (none / 1)

Clinton will drop out when the nomination is pried from her quivering hands.

For the reasons Drew has already posted but also, speaking realistically, Obama hasn't put her away yet. She is still within striking distance. One major gaffe by Obama and she's in.

One analysis posted on MyDD put it thus: if things go according to predictions Obama will need ~35% of the PLEO delegates at the convention to win the nomination while Clinton will need ~72%. That would be hard for her to accomplish both from a "What's In It for Me" stance as well as the demonstrated incompetence of the Clinton campaign.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Mar 26th, 2008 at 06:04:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can the Democrats re-unite? Who is really goin (none / 1)

I agree on everything except the bit on her being within striking distance. She's down 150-160 delegates and 800,000 votes. She needs 65% of the remaining delegates in every state from here on out to even the score. It would take a gaffe the likes of which we've never seen, and there'd be no reason for her not to suspend her campaign, because she could restart it if that kind of gaffe were committed.

Failing that, the campaign is over, unless the superdelegates flip it (in which case we have Armageddon -- blacks (who she's already only polling at 55% with against St John) and young people walk, along with God-knows-who-else -- and Clinton loses anyway). Obama will, in all likelihood, close some of the gap in Penn and win huge in NC, Montana, Oregon. And SD.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Mar 26th, 2008 at 07:03:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can the Democrats re-unite? Who is really goin (none / 0)

That's odd. "And SD" should've been right after a comma following Oregon. Stupid iPhone texting.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Mar 26th, 2008 at 07:47:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Can the Democrats re-unite? Who is really goin (none / 1)

I put in "Striking Distance" because of the uncertainty of seating the Florida and Michigan delegations.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Mar 26th, 2008 at 11:57:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Can the Democrats re-unite? Who is really going to win the US Election (Part 7) | 64 comments (64 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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