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What I've been trying to find is some indication of how much the large banks and other financial institutions make trading for their own accounts, as a percent of revenues, or of profits. My guess is that it has gone from around five or ten percent in the 1960s to well over fifty percent now. I looked at Morgan Chase's financials yesterday and did not see it broken out.
Anyone have any clues where to find this?
What I did find so far is interesting - the growth of derivatives has not increased the amount of lending.
Report on the Condition of the U.S. Banking Industry: Second Quarter, 2006 http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2007/reports/q206/default.htm#t2 Assets Loans Derivatives (billions) Loans as percent of Derivatives 2001 5896.783 2968.905 48,144 6.17% 2002 6256.824 3153.028 57,746 5.46% 2003 6926.108 3404.117 72,692 4.68% 2004 7963.241 3945.799 88,671 4.45% 2005 8645.888 4351.995 98,749 4.41% 2006 Q2 9282.941 4598.577 117,631 3.91% 3386.158 1629.672 69487 57.4% 54.9% 144.3% Increase from 2001 to 2006 2Q
Also, from http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=970655 Credit Derivatives and Bank Credit Supply BEVERLY HIRTLE Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Banking Studies Department February 2007 FRB of New York Staff Report No. 276
Turning to the new loan data, for term loans, average maturity increases and spreads decline as credit derivatives protection increases, especially for large borrowers. The results for the volume of lending are more mixed: the volume of large term loans is unaffected by changes in the degree of credit derivatives protection, while the volume of smaller term lending decreases. Overall, the results suggest an increase in the supply of credit to large term borrowers. Since large firms are more likely to be "named credits" in the credit derivatives market, this finding suggests that the benefits of credit derivatives may accrue mainly to these firms, rather than being spread more broadly across the business sector. In contrast, there is little to suggest that increased use of credit derivatives leads to an increase in loan supply for commitment lending, to either large or small borrowers. The volume of new commitment lending falls as net credit protection increases, and loans spreads are basically unchanged. The average maturity of loans to small commitment borrowers also falls as credit derivatives protection increases.
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