Beck was sick for the last two weeks and will come back on the stage Monday. A lot depends on what he says then. The party still seems fairly loyal to him, but he will probably have to scale his move to the left back somewhat in order to avoid a challenger from the Schröder wing.

With all the drama going on in Hesse, it's very hard to say what might happen next - but it's definitely too early for obituaries.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu

As for punishing the SPD for reforms, I guess that's exactly what was done in prior elections (up until the 2005 federal elections).

Beck seems not in sufficient control of the centrists in his party (for a reason also see Turambar), but note that he is no leftie put a power politician himself (he used to govern withe the (neo)liberal Free Democrats in Rhineland-Palatinate state until he wan absolute majority). But those writing his obituary seem to come from the right-wing and right-leaning media, people with an agenda; and they are over-emphasizing voices from one wing of the SPD.

That said, I never took the idea of a chancellor candidate Beck seriously. He seems to me more a kingmaker than king. But sorry I have no evidence to quote, just feelings, and I don't live in Germany...

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}