Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
Also see Fran in the Salon this morning.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 1st, 2008 at 03:24:38 AM EST
The broken-apart sides are grumpier than I expected.

While the liberals don't want new elections, they refuse to promise even outside support. (The confidence vote will be used more frequently, I guess.)

At the first government meeting after the announced break (which is supposedly active from the end of this month), the SzDSz ministers first didn't got seats, a transparent calculated snub.

Yet, Fodor seemed to veer off by claiming that the break-up is not yet certain.

The Socialists for their part speak about their healthcare un-reform plan as if it is a done deal.

According to speculation by Index.hu based on prior break-up mind-games, the coalition break-up was prepared in advance -- by both sides, as a step strengthening both Gyurcsány and Kóka within their parties.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Apr 2nd, 2008 at 10:54:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There were reports that the Socialists may try to woo the support of a small Fidesz-independent center-left party also in parliament. Something its party leader tried to fend off with unusually sharp comments about MSzP-SzDSz scheming.

The previous PM, Péter Medgyessy (whom Gyurcsány replaced after an internal coup) said publicly that Gyurcsány causes more problems than he solves, and suggested he should resign. He also said the government is too far from a leftist programme (Re askod).

The previous chairman of SzDSz, Gábor Kuncze, threatened to release his notes from coalition talks should the Socialists continue to blame reforms on the liberals only.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 04:53:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Forgot one thing. Budget deficits and ratings.

portfolio | Possible budget and credit rating implications of Hungary's government agony

In mid-March [right after the refenrendum -DoDo], S&P revised its outlook on Hungary to `Negative' from `Stable' over the "weakening perspective for sustained consolidation of public finances", after the government suffered a heavy defeat in an opposition-initiated referendum that had charges on doctor's visits and hospital stays and the tuition fee in higher education scrapped (effective 1 April).

At the same time S&P affirmed the country's 'BBB+' long-term and 'A-2' short-term sovereign credit ratings.

The downratings are more connected to expectations on further 'reforms' than real data. The data:

The Central Statistics Office (KSH) announced on Tuesday that the 2007 public sector deficit totalled 5.5% of GDP, considerably smaller than the original plan for a 6.8% gap. The falling out of one-off items means the government could easily achieve its 4.0% of GDP target this year.

...Hungary's economy expanded by a mere 1.3% yr/yr in 2007, and the cabinet expects growth to pick up to 2.4% this year, down from an original forecast of 2.8%.

The expectations:

David Heslam, ratings director at Fitch Ratings in London, told MTI Econews that should the Prime Minister resign, that would be a clear sign that support for his fiscal consolidation programme "had waned sufficiently" within the party and that means the possibility of a fiscal loosening ahead of the elections "becomes material". That would have a negative pressure on Hungary's ratings, Heslam said.



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 04:24:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I hope redstar notices this, because here is an illustration of my specifically leftist problem with the standard (French) leftist argument against the (typically German-Dutch) dogma of reducing budget deficits.

What I see is that deficits, via foreign credit dependence, enable foreign private capital to have a say in economic policy. I.e., advocate 'reforms' and use the threat or actual execution of downratings to 'vote' on government policy.

That is, I see a reduction of budget deficits as a prerequisite for a government to be able to pursue a socialist economic policy (yes, a purely theoretical situation at the moment).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 04:32:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's because we only allow ourselves to fund public spending through debt. In addition, if I may quote myself quoting Keynes:

European Tribune: Keen on Keynes

When involuntary unemployment exists, the marginal disutility of labour is necessarily less than the marginal product. Indeed it may be much less. For a man who has been long unemployed some measure of labour, instead of involving disutility, may have a positive utility. If this is accepted, the above reasoning shows how 'wasteful' loan expenditure[1]may nevertheless enrich the community on balance. Pyramid-building, earthquakes, even wars may serve to increase wealth, if the education of our statesmen on the principles of the classical economics stands in the way of anything better.

It is curious how common sense, wriggling for an escape from absurd conclusions, has been apt to reach a preference for wholly 'wasteful' forms of loan expenditure rather than for partly wasteful forms, which, because they are not wholly wasteful, tend to be judged on strict 'business' principles. For example, unemployment relief financed by loans is more readily accepted than the fiinancing of improvements at a charge below the current rate of interest; whilst the form of digging holes in the ground known as gold-mining, which not only adds nothing whatever to the real wealth of  the world but involved the disutility of labour, is the most acceptable of all solutions.

(My emphasis)

It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 04:46:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the problems is that European governments have taken the 3% deficit limit from the Growth and Stability Pact as a target in good times, which will prevent them from running anti-cyclical deficit spending in bad times.

It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 04:48:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the pear in two, I suppose. Without going into a long post which deserves a diary, not all budget deficits are bad; ones which are expressly to invest in future propserity are certainly good deficits: education, reduction of collective carbon footprint by putting money into noncarbon fuelled parts of the energy grid, mass transit infrastructure, public safety and security, quality accessible and affordable housing to facilitate greater labor marke flexbility (and note, when i say flexible, i don't mean it the same way as a neo-lib).

But we don't tax the wealthy near enough for them to pay their fair share for what they extract from the societies in which they live. And it isn't just the wealthy at fault here, though by buying elections they get a special part of the blame; the middle class (esp the petite bourgeoisie) strivers, for their various reasons, also adopt the values and interests of their employers. The reasons for this can best be read in your native tongue, straight out of Lukacs), though I imagine in todays' "modern" Hungary he may have gone temporarily out of style.

I had a friend link this to me not too long ago, it'll give you a few ideas, in French, from a classic french lefty, how to balance a budget and go after a self-interested, self-satisfied press at the same time:

Probably worth a post and an xlation...sorry no time, but I agree with him, if you do start taxing marginal rates at 100% (and you don't have to be communist to want this, either, see Sweden's tax code from not so long ago) you'll see a lot more sustainable state revenues, and also you'll no longer have the sorts of twisted incentives which anglo-american financial capitalism is seeing unwound today.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 09:20:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
not all budget deficits are bad; ones which are expressly to invest in future propserity are certainly good deficits: education, reduction of collective carbon footprint by putting money into noncarbon fuelled parts of the energy grid, mass transit infrastructure, public safety and security, quality accessible and affordable housing to facilitate greater labor marke flexbility

I agree that that would be sensible deficit spending, and my gripe with the previous Hungarian PM's deficit spending was just the lack of this (no future at all beyond highways, only pay-rises, with simultaneous tax cuts to please the coalition partner too). However,

  1. How different is your (the French Left's) idea of deficit spending from Keynesian anti-cyclical spending (see Migeru)? It is my understanding it goes well beyond that.

  2. How free are governments to pursue such sensible investment into the future when foreign private lenders begin to raise interests or make other claims? (Or, do you mean this system work better if institutional lenders, f.e. the ECB or a very different World Bank, would play party to it?)


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Apr 4th, 2008 at 03:43:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, this is the one I meant to post up:

Go the the last 15 second, paraphrasing:

You make more than ff4 millions, 100% tax, I take it all

He then proceeds to ridicule the journalists for being disrespectful and uncooperative, as they likely will be impacted by this proposal and want to use the press organs to decredibilize him...

Good stuff, entertaining too, and if you like many other educated folks (and some less educated, like Clavier) think of him as looking somewhat foolish here, that's because you are perhaps not the target audience.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Thu Apr 3rd, 2008 at 09:31:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I cannot follow his spoken French enough to judge for my educated self whether he makes a fool of himself, or is it the MSM journalists who try to get him appear so, or (since the latter seems rather conclusive from body language) both. If you'd post this in a diary with a transscript once you have time, that'd be fun.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Apr 4th, 2008 at 03:47:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's about a half-million Euros? Seems like a high enough threshold.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Apr 11th, 2008 at 01:54:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
However, you have foreign capital inflows as necessarily tied to budget deficits.

Total injections = total leakages, or

EXP + G + I = IMP + T + S

(G-T) = (IMP-EXP) + (S-I)

The Saving/Investment imbalance is private wealth accumulation that is in excess to private domestic wealth creation.

The (IMP-EXP), the trade deficit:

Official Account + Capital Account + Current Acct = 0.

Break up Current Acct,

Official Account + Capital Account + Net Income Inflows (+etc.) + (EXP-IMP) = 0

(IMP-EXP) = Official Account + Capital Account + Net Income Inflows

(G-T) = Official Account + Capital Account + Net Income Inflows + (S-I)

So the private wealth created by the public debt can either end up in the Central Bank (monetized), in the pockets of foreign holders of wealth, in the pockets of the domestic holders of wealth, or be, in effect, spending a net income windfall.

It doesn't automatically create the capital inflows.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 11:04:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This would probably be more readable if you reminded those of us who haven't gotten our brains in gear this early in the morning what all the algebraic symbols stand for.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 01:58:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I was posting it late in the evening my time, ... but very early in the morning, ET time.

They are not algebraic symbols, but, they are Macroeconomic shorthands. I get started with the common algebraic symbols in econ, I gotta print out a cheat-sheet for my greek character html entities.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 10:27:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
EXPorts
IMPorts
Investment (gross for GDP, net for NDP)
Saving
Government spending
Taxes

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 10:24:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 02:58:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... almost forgot to mention ...

"Investment" means Investment in productive capacity, not "financial investment" in terms of buying a financial asset.

Buying and selling stocks and bonds (debentures) is not treated as Investment in Macro because:

  • most of the transactions involve existing assets, and at the Macro level it nets out ... the purchase by the new owner is offset by the sale by the original owner, the liquid funds received by the original owner offset by the liquid funds surrendered by the new owner. It all nets out
  • that includes real (realized) capital gains from increasing financial capital valuations ... the realized capital gain exists because someone handed the money over to pay for it
  • new financial assets in the aggregate occur when new productive capacity is produced, so Macro goes straight to that and calls that "Investment".


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 03:23:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series