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OK, here is a longer reply.

First, the Hungarian Socialist Party on the whole is not neoliberal. To recap my Socialist taxonomy here, there are three pillars in the party: the grey technocrats, the networking entrepreneurs, and the naive socialists. The previous PM was from the first, and he implemented a classic presents-to-everyone policy that led to the gaping budget deficit. The current PM is from the second, and his famed "We lied!" speech (re-read here) was meant to browbeat his party into accepting his 'reforms'. Also, there were regular reports of internal growling among Socialists at concessions to the liberals.

However, I consider the third pillar, the naive socialists, intellectually unprepared and too indisciplined to ever take over, not to mention win elections and govern with success.

What about a leftist party beyond the Socialists? Difficult. The 5% limit and the majority pressures from the first-past-the-post element of the election system already make it difficult for newcomers. The strong polarisation of the present two camps, where most voters are motivated by preventing the Other Side, further limits even protest vote.

Now, the new party I implied is the Hungarian Social Democrat Party (MSzDP) led by one László Kapolyi.

After the failure to enter parliament in 1990 with their re-established party, the Social Democrats broke apart in internal divisions and existed as dwarfs. Kapolyi, a former top cadre of the Party and a rather rich man, rose to lead the current incarnation. From 2002, MSzDP was in local alliances with the MSzP, bringing Kapolyi into parliament. But he started to play anti-reforms rebel, and early this year, the potemkin party seemed to get new life, with a lot of Budapest Socialists deserting and joining the SocDems. They also try to ally with other sub-5% centrist parties.

The MSzDP rhetoric is nice, but I don't trust Kapolyi (we had one too many millionaire Socialists in Central Europe), the whole party leadersship seems too soft, and I don't think they stand much of a chance.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Apr 2nd, 2008 at 01:26:38 PM EST
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