Thursday Open Thread | 44 comments (44 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

More deterioration in trade? (none / 0)

Euro-area shipments to the U.S., which dropped in 2007 for the first time in four years, were flat at 15.4 billion euros ($24.6 billion) in the first month of 2008, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Exports to the U.K. rose 5 percent, while sales to Russia and China jumped 25 percent.
The euro reached a record near $1.60 against the dollar yesterday after European inflation data lessened the prospect of a European Central Bank interest-rate cut. That is adding to pressure on manufacturers trying to ship products into a U.S. economy teetering on the brink of a recession. France's Airbus this week said the euro's level is ``becoming unbearable.''
``A lot of the growth in the euro zone has been very much dominated by Germany and in particular trade,'' said Mitul Kotecha, head of foreign-exchange research at Calyon in London. ``Going forward, it's going to be quite risky. The reality is we're going to see some deterioration in trade and the strong euro is going to start to play a more negative part.''

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Apr 17th, 2008 at 04:51:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More deterioration in trade? (none / 1)

The title of the last article: "European January Exports to U.S. Flat After 2007 Drop". While it rose towards other trading partners. Focus...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Apr 17th, 2008 at 05:08:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More deterioration in trade? (none / 1)

From the original Eurostat press release [pdf!]:

The first estimate for the euro area (EA15) trade balance with the rest of the world in February 2008 gave a 0.8 bn euro surplus, compared with -1.6 bn in February 2007. The January 20082 balance was -11.0 bn, compared with -7.3 bn in January 2007. In February 2008 compared with January 2008, seasonally adjusted exports rose by 2.0% while imports fell by 0.4%.

But according to analysts sitting in London, we should be concerned that our exports to one country... didn't decrease despite the exchange rate worsening.

More - more improvements:

The first estimate for the February 2008 extra-EU27 trade balance was a deficit of 15.3 bn euro, compared with -17.5 bn in February 2007. In January 20082, the balance was -31.2 bn, compared with -26.0 bn in January 2007. In February 2008 compared with January 2008, seasonally adjusted exports rose by 3.3% while imports fell by 0.7%.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Apr 17th, 2008 at 05:19:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More deterioration in trade? (4.00 / 3)

Europe. Is. Doomed.

Oh sorry - was there some positive news? I wasn't paying attention.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Apr 17th, 2008 at 08:47:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More deterioration in trade? (4.00 / 2)

And meanwhile, inflation (CPI increase, that is) is at 3.6 in the Eurozone and at 4 in the U.S. Or, as the Independent put it yesterday: