... the period as a rising economy begins to overtake the current economic hegemon tends to be tumultuous ...

For instance, the Second Boer War at the last turn of the century, as Britain was being overtaken by the US, or the American War of Independence as Britain was threatened with being overtaken (but in the event was not ... the hegemon does not always get passed at the end of a Long Cycle, after all).

However, the World Wars tend to follow a little later in the cycle ... the Napoleonic wars after Britain re-established its position, the Great World War from 1914-1945 after the US had passed Britain.

And of course, there's no guarantee that it will be China that both passes the US and becomes the hegemon ... it could be that the Chinese leadership do not successfully hurdle structural problems that always come with rapid growth, and the new hegemon turns out to be Europe, or India.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.