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Not that into looking into the past for figuring out the future, but if you are going to use the pre WWI period as a template you should note one interesting fact. Namely, there were two rising powers - Germany and the US. One chose to take on the hegemon, the other allied itself with it against the other rising power. So playing your WWIII = WWI scenario - US = Britain, EU = France, China = Germany, Russia = Austria-Hungary, ? = the US (India perhaps?).
by MarekNYC on Mon Apr 28th, 2008 at 01:13:21 PM EST
Two chose to take on the hegemon, one had an elite that wanted to support the hegemon and an electorate that had to be dragged kicking and screaming into war.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Apr 28th, 2008 at 03:12:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With EU and US together, India as supporter (could be even USSR in historic comparison, which means main bearer of losses) there is simply no point for China and Russia to try militarily (and not economically).

I have a bit the impression China is build up as a bogeyman to blame to have a reason to finance new military technology. Not that I believe China has good intentions, but there is so much hype in the description of Chinese power, which simply is not there to that extend.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Mon Apr 28th, 2008 at 03:23:53 PM EST
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in much the same way as the threat of the USSR invading Europe was magnified out of all proportion.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Apr 28th, 2008 at 03:27:36 PM EST
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The idea that China or Russia have any interest in "trying militarily" seems laughable to me.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 29th, 2008 at 06:18:34 AM EST
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