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There is some important part of this story which is not being understood. The US insists on building a "missile defense shield". This is a technology which doesn't work (and probably never will). It is, ostensibly, directed at a state (Iran) which doesn't constitute a threat. Not even the prospect of big military contracts to build this system can explain the US position.

Similarly why should Russia care if the US installs a non-functional system?

There is only one conclusion that I can draw: the stated purpose and the real purpose are entirely different. Both the US and Russia know what the real purpose is, but, for some reason, are unwilling to let the public in either country (or in the countries hosting the system) in on the secret. I've seen this type of misdirection happen before, and have never been smart enough to figure out what was really going on at the time.

I'll just to toss out a random conjecture on what might be behind this program. The US has been quietly militarizing space in violation of international treaties. The seriousness with which anti-satellite tests by China and others were met shows that something is going on. We know that the US is using satellites for command and control, but we don't know about actual weapons in space. A project like "Rods from God" which involves dropping metal cylinders from space are easily hidden.

So, with this militarization program at risk from anti-satellite system, it becomes necessary to have an alternative command and control operation. The radars and other equipment placed in Eastern Europe would be close enough to the Middle East to allow their use in controlling operations in the region, especially aerial drones and unmanned surface vehicles. Such a guidance system would change the balance of power in the region and reduce Russia's influence over Iran and other nearby states.

As I said this is only a conjecture, but I'm pretty sure that whatever is being built, it isn't an anti-missile "shield".

Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Thu Apr 10th, 2008 at 12:02:08 PM EST
Good conclusion and reasonable conjecture.  I have been asking myself the same questions for some time.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Thu Apr 24th, 2008 at 02:08:21 PM EST
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Assuming they know what they are doing - a BIG assumption with this administration - it could be any number of things.

My first guess is these are bases for electronic counter-measures intended to be usable against the State of the Art anti-aircraft system Russia is building for Iran.  

A second guess is these are bases for some kind of Signal Intelligence operation, or pre-positioning for such.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Apr 25th, 2008 at 04:02:14 AM EST
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