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melo, you are obviously not a fan of Nuclear Energy. While this wasn't the main point I wanted to discuss, what kind of Energy Policy can in your view address the fossil decline in Europe? And over that, dealing at the same time with the decommissioning of our present Nuclear park?

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 07:01:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Before attempting to answer this question, we need to change the frame of the debate.

Looking at the last several thousand years of history, where is there any evidence of a civilization capable of managing such dangerous advanced technology?  Looking at the past several hundred years, and not ignoring the environmental catstrophe which is now our home planet, within what perspective of current society would managing such dangerous technology make any kind of universal sense.

When these questions can be answered satisfactorily without resorting to a completely controlled top-down society, only then can we begin to discuss the pluses and minus on the technology side.

From another angle, what's the point.  I for one have already decided, based upon the best evidence at hand, the only future which makes sense to me includes visions of happy children playing in a society powered by the source of life itself, the sun.  Measured against that vision, anything else smacks of the same blindness which has brought us to our current situation.

We are simply not evolved enough to manage anything other than the gentle power of the sun as it reaches us, for example, causing the temperature differences which bring us the wind.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 07:44:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

[...]where is there any evidence of a civilization capable of managing such dangerous advanced technology?

France?

I for one have already decided, based upon the best evidence at hand, the only future which makes sense to me includes visions of happy children playing in a society powered by the source of life itself, the sun.

I swear I saw lillies flourishing when I read that ;) Now seriously, that sounds pretty good, the problem is how we get there.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 08:28:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
France's 50 year management of its nuclear plants does not even begin to address the questions i raised, about very long term stable societies, where the track record to date is a destroyed planet.  And you did see lillies, probably in my hair.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 10:16:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I only count one question, on who is able to manage the technology.

I also don't see Nuclear as being the spine of a long lasting steady state society. As renewable energies progress, with time they will all surpass Nuclear, if not on other grounds first, ultimately on economic terms, because the decommissioning is incredibly cheaper and safety concerns are very small (if existent).

But we can't just dream with perfect societies, we have to build them. And for now (and coming back to my initial question to melo) how can we possibly do it without Nuclear?

P.S.: That is evil of you, to destroy beautiful flours to adorn your hair.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 11:55:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The second question was within what social perspective would such management make universal sense, which you haven't answered.

Renewable technologies have already progressed where some are more cost competitive, especially when all hard and external costs are factored in, and windpower has already shown what will happen with the other technologies.  Thus there is no social need for any nuclear energy, as the renewables can already do the job.  It will entail, of course, the kind of investment necessary to scale up nuclear as well, but it has more social benefit.

Just for the record, Luis, you are talking to a dreamer who happened to be one of the first builders of windpower in the world, so please no lectures on building.  I built the first commercial turbine in the US, asked a developer friend to bring in the first Danish machines to the US, and developed the first utility scale windpark in the world.  I do put my dreams into action.

Renewable energies can deliver all the energy our civilization needs, when combined with demand management and conservation (negawatts.)  In the time frame necessary.  Including all the necessary supply and delivery infrastructure.  Globally.  With much social benefit and virtually no downside.

This view is the result of thousands of studies over four decades, four decades of technology development, and three decades of commercial development.  It is no longer a dream.

Attention:  No flowers were killed in the making of this comment thread, they were all metaphorical, as in i came from San Francisco.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 01:31:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The third and fourth questions are:

  1. Which technology would be quicker to market? As I understand nukes take a little while to build, sustainables not quite so much, even if the grid sometimes needs to be extended while they're being built.

  2. If the free marketeers love free markets so much, why are they largely promoting the quasi-state organised not-really-free nuke market so over the rather more entrepreneurial sustainables market?
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jun 17th, 2008 at 02:38:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
wish i had a 10 to give you, crazy horse...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 10:25:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking at the last several thousand years of history, where is there any evidence of a civilization capable of managing such dangerous advanced technology?

That's why we are building systems which will not need any management or oversight, systems based on how the natural world works.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 03:10:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You can build a plant which won't need management or oversight for thousands of years?

Neat trick. How does that work, exactly?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jun 17th, 2008 at 02:34:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Like this.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Tue Jun 17th, 2008 at 03:08:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well, since the stupid software on andre's site doesn't accept that in my reality 79+2=81, so has refused my comment, i shall include it here, as it does try to point to alternatives.

 Hello Andre, thanks for blogging, and giving us a chance to have our little say.
  I too believe nuclear energy to be regressive, and beneficial to very few, compared to the negative characterial change necessary for societies to police the risks inherent in the technology.
  France is just one country, and one of the most advanced and responsible in Europe.
  Your job is to ensure clean, safe energy at the best price to as many europeans as possible, by directing our taxes intelligently into the proper channels to respect our commitments to Kyoto, and as much as possible to exceed them.
  What kind of example are we setting of moral coherence when we sanction Iran for wanting nuclear energy, when we could be modelling much saner alternatives?
  Nuclear energy is a horribly expensive wrong tree, to be barking up right now.
  One look at Naples should tell you how well nuclear energy is going to be managed in Italy. Recently the Italian government snuck in incinerators as a renewable resource. This does not do Europe proud.
  Be careful what you think you want, because you might get it!
  Why are you pushing nuclear with such enthusiasm, that could be going into teaching us about negawatts and reducing consumption by intelligent retrofitting of houses with proper insulation, rolling out MUCH more incentive for wind and solar?
  The corporations who run the nuclear and much else in the energy industries have already shown us over and over how allergic they are to truth and transparency. They are already stinking rich also.
  You would be much better off stimulating the less subsidised sectors of the economy, like builders, roofers and electricians, you know the 'little people' good governance is supposed to represent, rather than the usual brigade.
  There are a lot of us waking up right now, and although there's a lot you're doing right, we are educating ourselves. Please do not waste precious public funds on any more boondoggles with such potentially tragic consequences, no matter how nobly or cleverly justified by clever media campaigns, ie greenwashing.
  No offence intended, but if you're going to run ethanol in your Saab, please push for it not to be made from food crops, or likewise your efforts to bring us into better energy balance remain token symbols, and not what we need for visionary guidance and leadership.

A citizen of the EU.

in the dim hope he might wander over here...

my partner's dad was a nuclear engineer in dusseldorf back in the seventies. he died in his 30's from thymus gland cancer.

she has often told me of his stories about how shoddily the safety protocols were followed, and that's in Germany, where they really usually do sweat the details.

Crazy Horse tells it like it is, natch,  downthread.

I am no scientist, but no matter how relatively uneducated i am scientifically, it seems like fallout, like acid rain, does not only land on those who profited from its use.

i feel to keep silent is to be complicit, and we owe something to future generations that's a lot better than our leaders are pulling for now.

i am only one voice, and not a very articulate one at that.

De Anander has the most completely human summation of this dilemna, imo, and really the gifts to speak about it in the manner it deserves. these little pixel-droppings are all i've got...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 10:24:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"what kind of Energy Policy can in your view address the fossil decline in Europe?"

How about "fewer people"?

There is no advantage to any energy policy that accepts the axiom that More Is Better. For example, suppose that nuclear energy didn't have the problems that it has, and was too cheap to meter, etc. Then what is accomplished by building more of it? Nothing but further extension of an ultimately unsupportable population size.

The ONLY long term solution to the sustainability problem is the ultimate reduction of the global population to a sustainable level, and there are two choices about how to get there. 1.) Voluntarily. 2.) One or more of The Four Horsemen (three, really) of the Apocalypse.

All political history indicates that we will choose option 2.

by asdf on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 02:42:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Population size doesn't depend on electricity consumption. The truth is very likely that you can find a much stronger reverse connection between power consumption and population growth.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 03:05:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Population size doesn't depend on electricity consumption. The truth is very likely that you can find a much stronger reverse connection between power consumption and population growth."

Perhaps I was not clear. There are ALREADY too many people; population GROWTH is only a secondary problem. For example, are you proposing that India, China, etc. are going to reduce their electricity consumption over time? And Europe, also?

It seems to me that the problem is not the pollution or climate effect or non-renewable-ness of any given energy technology, but the fact that any energy "solution" becomes objectionable when scaled up to a size that can support the current global population. It applies to all of the options: Wind, solar, coal, nuclear, oil, etc.

The result: Continued discussion of how to "solve" the energy problem by changes on the supply side, when the real issue is the insatiable demand. Conservation can help, but if you don't combine conservation with a strong program to reduce the population, you end up building a system that can support an additional population increase--until you hit a new, higher demand limit.

by asdf on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 05:19:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Conservation can help, but if you don't combine conservation with a strong program to reduce the population, you end up building a system that can support an additional population increase--until you hit a new, higher demand limit.

If we look at Europe today we have a underlaying population decrease (offset by immigration), despite record levels of potential population support. The dynamics are not as simple as Malthus imagined.

My take is that at this time it is well established that a child normally survives and can reproduce. That means you need one to carry on two families traditions, and one in reserve. Coupled with good access to birth control, and record long schooling / problems with getting established on the job market has pushed the age of first childbirth so high that even getting children gets problematic for biological reasons. Then you also need coupling to accur in the right time interval. So not everybody gets their statistically desired 2 children, thus putting reproduction rates below break even.

Europe is on the other side of the population hump. America and Oceania is somewhere on the top. Asia and Africa are still growing, and are projected to grow another 3.5-4 billions together in the next 150 years. If we make it that far populations world wide will probably be in decline. Its a big if, but I would say access to electricity helps.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 06:06:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The yellow stuff is the natural population change. We will have in some years natural decrease, but the longer the shape of our demography and the longer life time make it, that so far only in eastern Europe (except Slovac, but marginally), Germany and the Netherlands there is a natural population decrease.

The red is net immigration.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 06:24:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Asia and Africa are still growing, and are projected to grow another 3.5-4 billions together in the next 150 years.

Somewhat misleading - East Asia has well below replacement level fertility rates. (China 1.77, South Korea 1.29, Japan, 1.22, Taiwan 1.23) Southeast Asia is varied: Thailand, Vietnam, and Burma have all dropped below; Indonesia's almost there while Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia and the Philippines remain well above. So what we're really talking about here is South Asia and the Arab countries of West Asia (Iran and Turkey are also below replacement level).

by MarekNYC on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 06:27:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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